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The Russian economy appears to be "on the verge of a transition to recession," Russian Economy Minister Maxim Reshetnikov said, adding that the next step will be decisive. The comments underscore Russia’s mounting economic challenges as it continues its all-out war against Ukraine.
"According to figures, we have a cooling stage in the economy. But all our numbers are like a rearview mirror," Reshetnikov said at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum when asked about Russia’s economic situation.
"According to current business perceptions, we are already, it seems, on the verge of a transition to a recession," the minister added. Reshetnikov clarified that recession is not inevitable and that "everything depends on our decisions."
Russia has faced soaring inflation during its invasion of Ukraine, driven by record wartime spending. This forced the central bank to set one of the highest key interest rates in decades, hurting private investments in non-defense-related sectors.
Facing government pressure, the central bank slashed the interest rate from 21% to 20% earlier this month.
Reshetnikov himself urged the central bank to cut rates in order to boost growth, aiming to achieve a 3% growth target set by Russian President Vladimir Putin. Russia has been forced to slash key projects across various sectors in the face of an economic slowdown, brought on in part by plummeting oil prices. Major Russian exporters have also cut down on rail shipments of metals and oil products, even beyond earlier projected reductions.
Earlier, Vitaliy Shapran stated the budget that the Russians adopted does not demonstrate a margin of safety, but only "puffs out the cheeks" and creates the appearance of strength. To a certain extent, this is Moscow’s show-off to force signing a peace agreement that is beneficial to Putin. "After all, when it moves from the TV to the refrigerator, it becomes clear that this affects people’s lives. We will now talk about taxes, inflation, and we will see that Russia is under pressure from economic problems. The fact that Putin does not declare a general mobilization and is ready to pay huge amounts of money to attract new mobilized people indicates that the regime feels insecure," the expert says. In addition, the war started by Putin’s regime has once again demonstrated that there are significant conflicts in the Russian state vertical, and Putin is far from being the commander he wants to appear to be. For example, Transneft began to act at its own discretion, they did not like the 40 percent tax burden, and there are many such examples.
Shapran emphasized that now only individual representatives of the system, dare to criticize the government.
According to him, while it is difficult to call such processes democracy, a certain manifestation of discontent is recorded. In business circles, they ask a logical question: why was this war necessary, and could Russia do without Crimea, Donbass and part of the Luhansk region?
"The government is trying to maintain control, but discontent in the country is growing. Putin is afraid to declare mobilization, fearing an internal rebellion – not only among the population, but also among the oligarchs who once earned big money, but have now become isolated and persecuted by the financial intelligence of the US, Israel and the EU," the expert says.
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