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Today, there are interesting developments from the Russian Federation.
Here, President Putin found out that they cannot spare even one armored column for the famous Russian May ninth parade because of the devastating losses suffered in the war in Ukraine. Moreover, even manpower in Russia has apparently degraded to a critical point, and the threat of Ukrainian long-range drones has forced the Russians to start openly discussing the worst options on the table.
Recently, Russian authorities considered canceling the May ninth Victory Day parade in Moscow altogether, which would be an unprecedented symbolic blow. Victory Day holds deep importance in Russia, commemorating the Soviet victory over Germany in World War Two and projecting national strength and military power. Despite initial doubts, the parade will still take place on Red Square, but in a significantly reduced format. It will feature only marching infantry units, an aviation show with commercial planes, and no military vehicles on display. The event is expected to last less than an hour, instead of the regular multiple-hour commemoration, marking an unprecedented scaling back of what is typically a major national spectacle.
The official Russian narrative is that these changes are because of security concerns, with Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov stating that the absence of military equipment is due to what he described as terrorist activity from Ukraine. Indeed, there are reports of increased security measures driven by concerns over Ukrainian long-range drones and the gaps in Russian air defense capabilities. To compensate for them, mobile communications in Moscow are expected to be restricted on May ninth and the days leading up to it. In addition, no-fly zones will be enforced over the capital, along with tighter regional security controls.
Despite the official Russian narrative, the true reason for the lack of a large-scale parade is the significant Russian losses of all types of equipment over the course of the war. Combined with the depletion of pre-war reserves and the insufficient production of new vehicles, this has resulted in the lack of armored vehicles for parades. According to the military analysts from Oryx, which document losses through visual confirmation, Russia has lost approximately four thousand three hundred main battle tanks, eight thousand eight hundred armored and infantry fighting vehicles, seven hundred and thirty armored personnel carriers, and around four thousand and six hundred other vehicles and trucks. Actual losses may be up to three times higher, according to the Ukrainian General Staff, because these figures are considered conservative, as not every loss is documented on video. Given these significant losses, it is understandable why the main reason for the parade to be infantry only is not only the threat of Ukrainian long-range attacks.
However, even this form of parade is at risk due to the manpower shortage, as soldiers are more needed at the front to compensate for the lack of vehicles rather than for display in Moscow, exacerbating parade limitations. In the past four months, Russia lost between thirty and thirty-five thousand troops monthly, and was able to recruit only twenty-four thousand soldiers per month, which is twenty percent down from last year. This led to the fact that the Russian army is now losing more soldiers than it can recruit for four consecutive months, indicating a potential mobilization crisis, in the face of which the parade on Red Square is expectedly not at the top of the Russian command’s priority list.
Taken together, these factors point to increasing pressure on Russia’s ability to replace losses at the same pace they are incurred, explaining why the country is ready to scale down even its most important event in the calendar, leaving it without armored vehicles on display.
Overall, the reduced Victory Day celebrations underscore the deeper structural strain in Russia that cannot be hidden by official statements. With mounting battlefield losses, lack of reserves, and production shortfalls, Russia’s military display capability has reached its lowest point, limiting itself to infantry units. As even this was under question, the prospect of canceling the most important parade was real, reflecting the harsher reality that there is nothing left to show, which exposes the weakness of the Russian army after four years of full-scale war in Ukraine.
