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10. Iran’s retaliatory strikes against US crush Russia: Putin’s "shadow fleet" "sinks" in the oceans
The escalation of the conflict in the Middle East and Iran’s closure of the Strait of Hormuz in response to the US and Israeli military operation could seriously disrupt global oil supply routes. This threatens not only regular trade but also the so-called "shadow fleet" – a network of tankers used by sanctioned countries, including Russia, to evade sanctions. Fox News writes about this. Iranian authorities announced the closure of the strategically important Strait of Hormuz, the narrow sea corridor between the Iranian island of Hormuz and the Omani enclave of Khasab. Tehran has warned that ships passing through the strait could be subject to attack . As a result, oil tanker traffic has sharply declined, as many crews fear missile strikes and military incidents. The escalation of the conflict has affected not only regular trade routes, but also illegal oil transportation schemes. At issue is the so-called "shadow fleet" – tankers with confusing registration or hidden owners that are used to trade oil from sanctioned countries such as Iran, Russia and Cuba. These vessels frequently change flags, use offshore companies and complex logistics chains to disguise the origin of the oil and circumvent restrictions. It is noteworthy that the closure of the Strait of Hormuz coincided with the West’s increased efforts to combat gray oil trade schemes, which further complicates life for sanctioned countries. Thus, the United States has already effectively imposed a maritime quarantine on oil shipments to Cuba and warned a number of countries, including Mexico, against supplying energy resources to regimes under sanctions. European allies have also stepped up controls on vessels linked to the "shadow fleet." Recently, Belgian military forces intercepted the tanker MT Ethera, which is linked to shady oil shipping schemes. The vessel was stopped in the North Sea and sent to the port of Zeebrugge under military escort. According to investigations, the vessel may be linked to the son of high-ranking Iranian politician Ali Shamkhani. The Shamkhani family controls a network of tankers used for oil trade between Iran and Russia. The price ceiling mechanism for Russian oil introduced by Western countries puts additional pressure on Russian exports. Last month, the cap was lowered to around $44 per barrel, which should keep Russian oil below global market prices. Experts believe that tightening controls on illegal transportation could have a serious impact on countries that actively use these schemes. China remains one of the largest buyers of Iranian oil, despite sanctions, according to available data. Russia, meanwhile, could face a further reduction in oil revenues, potentially reducing the financial resources available to continue the war against Ukraine.
Verbal support is all Vladimir Putin has been able to offer his allies: Syria’s Bashar al-Assad, Venezuela’s Nicolas Maduro and now Iran’s Ali Khamenei. The Russian president has watched them fall from power one after another, without lifting a finger to defend them. At first glance, Russia’s powerlessness reflects "a strategic downgrading both regionally and globally," according to Tatiana Kastouéva-Jean, a researcher at IFRI, the French Institute of International Relations. "In Syria, Venezuela and through the loss of influence in resolving the conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan, Moscow has proven incapable of protecting its partners and influencing the outcomes. In the summer of 2025, for example, Donald Trump bluntly rejected Russia’s proposal to mediate in Iran. The very existence of these partnerships and Moscow’s potential reaction are not factors considered by Washington, which clearly signals its view of Moscow’s secondary strategic role," researchers said.
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