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After a series of massive Israeli strikes on Iranian territory, more and more experts are saying: Iran is following the path of Syria, and this is already irreversible. The loss of dominance in the skies, internal repression, growing chaos and the possible collapse of the regime – such a scenario could not only change the situation in the Middle East, but also leave Russia without a key partner in the region.
Analyst of the organization UANI or "Together Against Nuclear Iran" Kasra Arabi compared what is happening in Iran with the events in Syria in the 2010s. In his opinion, the ayatollah regime is entering a phase of "Syrianization", when a powerful external military force takes control of the airspace and begins targeted destruction of command and infrastructure. Israel has already proven that it can strike anywhere in Iran – and this is becoming the new norm. The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) operate in the skies of the Islamic Republic as freely as they used to over Lebanon and Syria. Now, essentially, with impunity, Arabi emphasizes. The loss of control in the skies leads to increased control on the ground. Ayatollah Khamenei, like Assad once did, will rely on internal repression and security forces, especially the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. But, as the Syrian experience shows, sooner or later this will not be enough. This is how Assad maintained power until internal decay and international isolation undermined the regime from within.
Arabi does not rule out that Khamenei could be overthrown or eliminated even before the current escalation ends. If this does not happen, the country will face a long agony of the regime, filled with repression, economic degeneration and the destruction of the state apparatus. This scenario has already led to the gradual collapse of Syria – now Iran may repeat the same path.
Additional confirmation of the escalation are the words of Donald Trump, which were spoken on the day of the new strikes: "We now have complete and total control over the skies over Iran. They had a lot of defensive equipment, but it does not compare to American technology. No one does it better than the United States," the former president said. This statement not only underlines the alliance between Washington and Tel Aviv on the Iranian issue, but also points to Tehran’s waning ability to defend itself.
For Russia, the consequences could be strategically devastating. After the fall of the Assad regime in Syria, Iran remained the Kremlin’s last close ally in the Middle East. The loss of Tehran, or its transformation into an unstable, isolated state, means the collapse of Russia’s entire line in the region. Without Iran, Russia will be left without a support base, without an ally, and without the influence it has spent years building amid its confrontation with the West. Israel’s air power, the tacit support of the United States, and the deep vulnerability of Iran’s air defenses make the process of "Syrianization" of Iran virtually irreversible. And no matter how much the Khamenei regime resists, its time may be numbered.
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