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Following the assassination of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, the country’s power structure underwent major changes, with actual control shifting from the religious leadership to the security bloc led by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. According to Reuters, Iran is no longer governed by a single supreme leader with absolute power. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, the Supreme National Security Council, and the Office of the Supreme Leadership now play a central role, jointly making key military and political decisions. According to sources, Khamenei’s son, Mojtaba Khamenei, formally retains a high status within the system, but his influence is limited, with actual decisions being made by generals and security officials. He was also reportedly seriously wounded in the attack that killed his father and has not appeared publicly since. One of the key figures in the new center of power is the commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, Ahmad Vahidi. Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi and Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf, who, according to sources, has become an important link between the country’s political, religious, and military elites, are also overseeing the diplomatic ranks. Amid changes in its internal power structure, Tehran is attempting to advance a new format for negotiations with the United States. Iran proposes conducting dialogue in stages and postponing discussion of the nuclear program until hostilities end and the crisis around the Strait of Hormuz is resolved. Washington, in turn, insists that the nuclear issue become the central topic of negotiations from the very beginning.
Experts believe the increased role of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has made Iran’s foreign and domestic policies more assertive. Despite economic pressure and military confrontation with the US and Israel, the country’s current leadership is focused on maintaining strategic leverage and strengthening its position after the war. The Wall Street Journal reports that US President Donald Trump has stated the need for Tehran to conclude a nuclear deal as soon as possible, while also ordering preparations for measures in the event of a protracted regime of restrictions on Iranian seaports. According to sources, at a closed meeting in the White House Situation Room, Trump considered several possible strategies – including resuming the war, de-escalating the conflict, or increasing pressure on Iran through economic restrictions and a naval blockade. Following the discussion, the options of direct military action and immediate end to the conflict were reportedly assessed as more risky than other approaches.
It is noted that the American leader does not yet intend to soften his basic position: Iran must suspend uranium enrichment for at least 20 years and agree to additional restrictions on its nuclear program. Axios says that US Central Command has prepared a scenario for a limited but intense series of strikes against Iran, seeing it as a way to move the stalled negotiations forward. Following the attacks, which would likely include infrastructure targets, the US would plan to pressure the regime to return to the negotiating table and show greater flexibility. As previously reported, Iran stated that even with the current ceasefire, the country is not abandoning preparations for a possible new phase of confrontation with Israel and the United States. They emphasize that the current pause in hostilities is not perceived as an end to the conflict, but rather as a temporary window to strengthen military capabilities. The Iranian armed forces continue training exercises, learning from past clashes, and increasing their combat readiness. It is emphasized that the country remains effectively in a war-like situation, and intelligence, surveillance, and rearmament activities continue unabated.
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