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Moscow is digging in; third air defense ring is built right among the buildings

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OSINT researcher Jembob and Radio Liberty journalist Mark Krutov have launched a new study on new Russian air defense towers and ramps around Moscow. This will be the third air defense ring around the Russian capital. Construction began last spring. Construction of many others is scheduled to begin in the fall of 2025 or early 2026. Mark Krutov believes that what is being discussed is the creation of a third air defense ring for Moscow, which will be located approximately as shown in the figure. Most often, air defense towers are located near populated areas. Rare photos even show them being located right inside villages. But most often, air defense towers are built in forests; for example, one of them is located in the Vladimir region, in the Krutovsky state nature reserve. Moscow’s air defense consists of three elements: Anti-aircraft missile systems: the basis is made up of the long- and medium-range S-400 Triumph and S-300 systems. Object-based air defense: to intercept small targets like drones, Pantsir-S1 systems are used, which are often deployed on the roofs of administrative buildings and within city limits. Electronic warfare: systems are used to suppress GPS signals and UAV control, which sometimes leads to malfunctions in civilian navigation systems. As a reminder, despite the dense defense, individual drones managed to break through to the city center or crash in residential areas when they were suppressed by electronic warfare. The buildup by the Russians of air defense around Moscow during the preparations for and the parade on May 9 could open up additional opportunities for Ukraine to strike other important targets on Russian territory. This was stated by Valentin Badrak, director of the Center for Army, Conversion and Disarmament Studies, in an exclusive comment.
According to the expert, moving the air defenses away from protecting Moscow and Red Square creates additional opportunities to strike other targets that are no less significant for Ukraine. “Pulling back air defenses to protect Moscow and Red Square opens up greater opportunities to strike other targets that are, ultimately, no less significant for us”, Valentin Badrak says. According to him, the Russians have increased the concentration of missile-defense forces around the capital at the expense of launchers relocated from other regions of the country, which weakens their overall defense. The expert expects that soon there may be reports of effective actions by defense forces against targets on Russian territory or on territories under its control. The very fact of the Kremlin’s preparation for a strike already signals alarming sentiment: Moscow is allegedly afraid of possible attacks from Ukraine, and the fear abroad creates a prolonged psychological pressure. “Moscow is trembling, and dictator Putin, who hides in his bunkers and spends most of his life there, fears this. This is our shared achievement. This is very important. And the fact that they will be expecting such a strike there is already a significant success, a strategic psychological pressure”, Valentin Badrak says. According to the expert, decisions about possible strikes depend on the command’s calculations and the assessment of the effectiveness of mass drone strikes, as well as on how well Russia’s air defense can withstand such a tactic. At the same time, launching hundreds of drones with a possible hit on Red Square could become a significant blow for the Kremlin. “If you strike Red Square directly, it would be a strategic, psychological blow, a shock. Whether Ukraine strikes or not, that is a matter of military command calculations”, Valentin Badrak says. The expert also expressed confidence that the likelihood of Russia responding with nuclear weapons is minimal, given the risks and political consequences of escalation. He drew particular attention to the possibility of deploying the intercontinental ballistic missile system “Oreshnik.” Currently, in his assessment, it serves more as a means of intimidating Europe and is unlikely to be a full military argument. Ukraine continues to develop its own means of countering ballistic missiles.
The expert stressed the importance of maintaining vigilance among the population and responding carefully to reports of threats from launches from distant missile bases, as Ukraine does not currently have a full arsenal to intercept all such targets. He also noted that Russia previously claimed its missiles were invulnerable, but Ukrainian air defense has already successfully shot down such threats with Patriot systems.

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