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Due to significant losses suffered by Russian forces in Sumy and Pokrovsk fronts, the enemy will have to find new reserves, with talk of a 160,000-strong grouping. Military expert Ivan Kyrychevskyi of Defense Express said this on air on Espreso TV.
"We won’t see anything dramatic from the Russians on the front line this summer—they simply won’t have time. The fact that our troops are regaining positions in such intense directions as Sumy and Pokrovsk is because the Russian soldiers there have all been wiped out due to the effective actions of Ukraine’s Defense Forces.
Clearly, the enemy will have to draw reserves from somewhere, and the discussion was about a grouping of 160,000 troops. If we compare that number to the 50,000 the enemy threw into the Sumy region and the 110,000 on Pokrovsk, the magic of big numbers suggests they should start raising their hands. But the reality is that the Russians won’t have time to muster anything significant," the Defense Express expert commented.
Kyrychevskyi added that the enemy has far too many drones, and the drone factor—now a dominant aspect of modern warfare—prevents Ukraine’s forces from advancing as far as they would like. Ideally, he said, the goal should be not only to push Russians back from Sumy and Pokrovsk, but to move much deeper toward restoring Ukraine’s full territorial integrity. Moscow spent the winter months building up manpower, refining tactics and improving the co-ordination of missile and drone strikes. At first, there were signs it was paying off.
“The capacity to start something new and distinct really isn’t there for the Russians right now. The summer offensive is just going to be the continuation of what they’ve been doing in spring,” Angelica Evans, a Russia analyst at the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), told.
In Sumy, Russian forces appear to have stalled entirely. Having re-entered the region in January and intensified their push this spring, Moscow’s troops have failed to make further gains. Instead, Ukraine has recaptured some territory. Despite heavy fighting, Ukraine has managed to slow down Russia’s advances in the region, according to the ISW, which said Russia was sending out thousands of poorly-trained soldiers to lead the advance – a pattern seen across the front line.
“The Russian offensive has broadly stalled … They have the advantage in manpower and drones but their infantry is very poorly trained, if at all,” a senior Ukrainian NCO, who is fighting in the Kupiansk direction in Donetsk, told.
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