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Orban’s defeat brings back to life the most archetypal story: where Putin can expect trouble. According to Ukrainian military analyst Aleksey Kopytko, the so-called "truce" temporarily reduced the white noise, allowing interesting stories to emerge.
He adds: 1. Vance has hit his head hard twice – with Orban and with Iran. Moreover, one gets the feeling that Trump deliberately sent him to the Iranians to create a negative narrative over which Vance has no control, only making himself look like an idiot running errands. Talk in the US about replacing the leader has become too loud, as the current one has gone crazy.
Meanwhile, Comrade Rubio has kept a low profile and is quietly shepherding the Cuban issue, where positive signals are coming from: local authorities have begun publicly allowing for cooperation with the US, attracting investment, and so on.
Trump adds fuel to the self-insanity narrative. The attack on the Catholic Church is truly impressive.
It’s telling that both Vance and Rubio are practicing Catholics. The Catholic community will be watching them for a reaction. At a minimum, anonymous rumors are expected to surface in the media that they don’t fully share Trump’s enthusiasm for the Vatican. This is a matter of gaining support from the influential Catholic network in future electoral cycles.
The story of the joint American-Iranian blockade of the Strait of Hormuz is a real gem.
Trump has the perfect tool in his hands: the army. Predictable and effective. However, he decided to use the military in the most exotic way possible.
Previously, there was ironclad logic. Successfully complete one stage of the operation—prepare the next. Politicians decide to give diplomacy a chance—fine. Diplomacy fails—the plan must be put into action.
A couple of megatons of iron on the heads of the remaining SEPAH forces and the entire Iranian infrastructure—and then diplomacy again. And there would have been less criticism. Because Washington didn’t immediately implement the ultimatum, but gave dialogue a chance.
Instead, the American fleet will now have to perform some strange exercises. And its projected power will sit idle. This is an abnormal situation for the military.
The worst case scenario would be if the blockade and new contacts fail, and force is ultimately used. This would create even more doubts within the military. And Hegseth’s determination to chop off disloyal heads might not help.
This is really bad, because it calls into question the only unconditional argument of the United States on a global level.
2. Russia has its own cinema. The process of Jucheization is gaining momentum. The potential prolongation of the conflict in the Persian Gulf is hypothetically encouraging for Moscow, but the effect is clearly insufficient and delayed.
Meanwhile, Russia faces a very bad quarter. The Kremlin is once again asking businesses to open up their wallets.
Against this backdrop, Orban’s defeat brings back to life the most archetypal story of all: where Putin can expect trouble.
Peter Magyar, a true member of the Hungarian ruling elite, organized an opposition based on the conflict and ousted the current leader, who had tired many.
The potential of the Russian opposition in exile, all non-systemic dissenters, and so on, appears categorically insufficient to somehow undermine Putin’s rule.
That is, a successful attack can only be prepared within the Putin elite, when a public figure with some influence takes a special position, and no one wants to or has time to suppress it.
And now the most interesting exercise is to guess who exactly will become Putin’s gravedigger, who will be supported by the intra-elite opposition.
In Russia, many people are probably indulging in these thoughts while scrolling through the news from Budapest.
Mishustin? He’s 60 years old, has political clout, is cautious, isn’t the first war criminal, is well-liked by businesses, China, and Westerners, and could offer a chance for recovery.
The Patrushevs? They’re well-liked by the security forces, they hate Kadyrov, and they can hold the line. Although the younger one isn’t exactly a shining example.
Kovalchuks? The risk is too great and it’s unclear why.
Chemezov and someone from his orbit? Some military-industrial technocrat with a human face?
Some kind of "war hero"…
All of this will push the Kremlin to maximally sterilize its immediate and distant approaches to power, which should also manifest itself in the Duma elections.
There’s experience in tightening the screws. However, stories in Moldova and Hungary indicate that the Kremlin’s solutions are no longer working…
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