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OSINT: Russia Increases Intensity of Drone Launches Over Ukraine; About 7,000 Launches Expected in May

OSINT: Russia Increases Intensity of Drone Launches Over Ukraine; About 7,000 Launches Expected in May

The Russian army has intensified its strikes on Ukrainian territory, using massive waves of kamikaze drones and missiles.

This conclusion was reached by OSINT specialist and international relations student Clément Molin.

After two record-breaking months at the start of 2026, May is expected to reach a new peak.

Forecasts predict over 7,000 drone strikes per month. About 30–40% of this number consists of decoys designed to overload Ukrainian air defense. The Russians are actively using cheap decoys like the Gerbera and Parody for this purpose.

The occupiers equip some of these drones with reconnaissance equipment or additional transponders.

Monthly number of drones deployed in attacks on Ukraine. Source: Clément Molen

They help guide the main wave of attack UAVs and pinpoint the positions of Ukrainian radar stations, which significantly complicates the work of mobile fire groups and anti-aircraft units.

As the author notes, May 2026 was marked by several days of relative calm, which led to a temporary decrease in the intensity of shelling.

However, this pause allowed Russia to accumulate resources and prepare the largest-scale attack of the entire full-scale war: over the 24-hour period of May 13–14, the enemy launched approximately 1,600 drones of various types.

The Russians are targeting infrastructure facilities with the majority of these drones.

Statistics on strikes and shootdowns of Shahed-type drones for the first half of May 2026, with a high record on May 13–14. Source: Clément Molen

Russian forces are deliberately attempting to strike: transformer substations and power generation facilities; railway hubs and infrastructure; oil and gas facilities and large gas stations; industrial zones and logistics hubs near the front line.

Earlier, Militarnyi reported that over the course of a day, Russian occupation forces dropped 328 guided aerial bombs (GABs). This was a record daily total since October 17, 2025.

In total, over the first 10 months of 2025, Russia dropped approximately 40,000 aerial bombs. This figure matches the total number of GBs the enemy used throughout all of 2024.

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