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If sanctions against buyers of Russian oil, which have already begun with India, are actually put in place, Russia will receive significantly less foreign exchange income.
This in turn will lead to the fact that in the aggressor country Russia, extremely negative economic processes may begin to develop very dynamically. First of all, the budget deficit in the Russian Federation will increase significantly, and at the same time the Russian ruble will devalue. This opinion was expressed by the head of the Committee of Economists of Ukraine, Andrey Novak, in an interview with Glavred.
"As a result, Russia will quickly reach the point where it will not be able to carry out social and budgetary expenditures. In turn, this, on the one hand, could provoke riots from below, and on the other – discontent among those at the top, primarily the oligarchs who earned money on energy resources. These incomes have already been significantly reduced, and many of these oligarchs have fallen under personal sanctions from the West," Novak noted.
In the end, he said, this could lead to what historically has been the most realistic way to change power in Russia, a palace coup.
"This revolution can take different forms. But it is precisely the significant deterioration of the economic situation in Russia that has historically provoked such events. Most likely, this is how the situation in Russia will develop this time, perhaps even this year, but more likely next year," the economist added.
State Duma deputy of the 5th and 6th convocations, Russian opposition politician Ilya Ponomarev told what possible scenario for the collapse of the Russian Federation is.
"I believe that the Russian Federation as a state in its current form should cease to exist, but this does not mean that Russia as a country should also cease to exist," says Ponomarev.
He noted that the Russian Federation must become an adequate republic that will release peoples who strive for an independent life.
"In my ideal world, the future Russian republic lets go of those nations that do not want to live within it, and builds a normal society, a normal state with a normal legal system that is safe for its neighbors. Many are skeptical about the possibility of such a scenario. But if we initially say that this is impossible, then we will fight endlessly. I do not think that this is in the interests of Russia or Ukraine. Therefore, we must make every effort to make this happen. This is in the interests of all nations that live in the post-Soviet space and beyond," Ponomarev emphasized.
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