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The information landscape in Russia is undergoing radical changes: the bravura marches about "taking Kyiv" are giving way to panic. Military experts, bloggers, and key Kremlin propagandists are increasingly openly acknowledging Ukraine’s technological superiority and expressing fear of imminent catastrophe. NZZ reports this. Russian propaganda has been confronted with an unpleasant historical fact: the current war has already lasted longer than the USSR’s campaign against Nazi Germany, yet none of the Kremlin’s goals have been achieved. Not only has Ukraine not been "demilitarized," but it has also become a powerful military power whose technology has become an insurmountable challenge for Russia.
Nationalist Maxim Kalashnikov is already openly predicting a "perfect catastrophe" for Russia, emphasizing that the protracted war is destroying the country from within. The main topic of complaint in the pro-war community has become the dominance of Ukrainian drones. Technological gap: Vladimir Solovyov acknowledged Russia’s lag, stating that Russia’s weapons are "legendary", while the Ukrainian Armed Forces have "modern" ones. Lack of a secure rear: Former Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu stated that there are no longer any regions in Russia protected from attack. The futility of mobilization: Propagandists admit that even millions of recruits will not change the situation, since due to the abundance of drones, many soldiers die before reaching the front lines. Russia is particularly humiliated by the situation with its Black Sea Fleet. A country without a traditional navy—Ukraine—has managed to destroy or lock up most of Russia’s warships in ports.
Parallel to military setbacks, economic pressure is mounting. Oligarch Oleg Deripaska is already proposing to put the country on a strict survival schedule: a 12-hour workday and a six-day workweek. Open conflicts have erupted within the propaganda machine. While some, like Pavel Gubarev, are voicing shocking casualty figures, others are demanding their arrest for "treason." However, the general nervousness only confirms that the Kremlin has reached a dead end. The territories claimed as "its own" are not fully controlled, and new Ukrainian long-range weapons, such as Flamingo missiles, are causing propagandists to hysterically ask on air, "Where is our air defense?".
When Ukraine began acquiring a conventional long-range strike arsenal around mid-2023, it was almost entirely dependent on Western partners. Although it started producing its first long-range drones around that time, these early systems lacked maturity, and production scaled up slowly. As a result, deliveries of Storm Shadow and SCALP-EG missiles from the United Kingdom and France were not simply beneficial, but essential to enable and maintain a Ukrainian long-range strike capability. Things began to change in 2024. Ukraine’s long-range strike program began to bear fruit by late 2024. Ukrainian manufacturer Fire Point drew attention by unveiling the FP-5 Flamingo, a large, heavy cruise missile reportedly capable of carrying a 1,150-kilogram payload over a range of up to 3,000km. The company stated it can currently produce a missile per day, or about 30 per month, with the ability to scale production to more than 2,500 per year given sufficient funding.
Still, the trajectory of Ukraine’s missile arsenal is clear. The Flamingo, which is only one of several Ukrainian heavy missile programs nearing mass production — others including the Hrim-2 short/medium-range ballistic missile and the Korshun land-attack cruise missile — is indicative of Ukraine’s ambition to complement its missile arsenal with a much-needed heavy hitter.
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