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Cracks and disagreements within the vertical power structure in Russia are rapidly growing, fueling the Russian leader’s unprecedented paranoia. This is what the political analyst at Sito Sokrata writes. Kremlin apologists are still working to create a semblance of stability, but leading global media and intelligence agencies are painting a picture of a regime that has begun to consume itself. The elite pact itself has come into question. The arrest of Ruslan Tsalikov on March 5, 2026, became the point of no return. For the Russian political system, this event had the effect of a bomb going off. Tsalikov was not just an ordinary official; he had been Sergei Shoigu’s right-hand man and confidant for the past 30 years. His accusation of organizing a criminal organization and embezzlement sent a clear signal: there were no more untouchables. As Financial Times analysts emphasize, Putin has arbitrarily and officially terminated the unspoken social contract with the elites. For decades, loyalty was exchanged for security and the right to corrupt practices. Now, with the SVO at a dead end and the economy crumbling, the aging dictator is looking for those responsible among his own. Weakening Shoigu’s position through the destruction of his inner circle puts the Security Council Secretary himself under direct attack, depriving him of resources and protection. Based on these statements, according to a report by European intelligence services obtained by CNN, the likelihood of a coup d’état in Russia has reached its highest level in decades. EU intelligence agencies indicate that Shoigu, despite his formal demotion, retains colossal influence within the military and among security forces, who are dissatisfied with being turned into scapegoats. Western publications such as Le Monde and the German newspaper Der Spiegel note that Putin no longer trusts even his closest circle. This is confirmed by security measures that read like a dystopian scenario. A system of total control by the Federal Protective Service has been established. Security officers now even check Putin’s chefs and photographers, who are banned from using public transportation. Russia is reeling from digital isolation measures. Large-scale internet outages in Moscow in March and April are attributed to the Kremlin’s attempts to disrupt the conspirators’ coordination. Putin himself seemed to have fled underground and practically stopped appearing in Moscow, preferring heavily modernized bunkers in the Krasnodar region. The tragedy of the Putin regime is that its attempts to defend itself only hasten its tragic denouement. By intensifying repression against its own top brass, Putin is pushing the elites toward the only logical solution: the physical elimination of the source of the threat. As German commentators write, "Putin’s fear of drones on May 9 is just the tip of the iceberg; in reality, he fears a knife in the back from the man standing with him at the podium today." The arrest of Tsalikov and the persecution of Shoigu’s team have created a situation where the military leadership essentially has no choice: either they become next on the arrest list or they attempt to seize power. European intelligence is bluntly warning: the purge of the "Shoigu clan" has destabilized the system. On the eve of May 9, 2026, Russia presents itself as a country where the president fears his own parade. Putin’s paranoia has transformed the Kremlin into a besieged fortress, where every ally is a potential traitor in the dictator’s eyes, and every offer of a "truce" resembles a desperate attempt by an underground dictator to buy himself a little more time. History teaches us that regimes built on total mistrust collapse precisely when their creator begins to believe he has outmaneuvered everyone. Looking at the windows of the building on Mosfilmovskaya Street shattered by a Ukrainian drone and the increased patrols by the Federal Protective Service, it becomes clear that the finale of the coup has already been written. Only one question remains: who among Putin’s entourage will dare to lead this long-overdue uprising.
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