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Russian dictator Vladimir Putin is expelling from the Kremlin those who bring him bad news—that is, those who tell the truth. However, Putin will still be unable to rid himself of those who might oppose him, and his forced resignation is the more likely scenario for the collapse of the Kremlin regime. Putin, who keeps officials in fear, is also trying to keep the situation under his control by imprisoning them.
In an interview with Channel 24, American professor Scott Lucas predicted Russia’s collapse and what will happen to Putin. He also explained what will happen to Russians due to the new mobilization laws.
He said that the Kremlin is balancing between the number of personnel and the resources it must devote to this 46-month-old invasion. They are trying to find a balance between the amount of effort and resources required and maintaining the illusion that this is a special military operation rather than a full-scale war.
“They might have gotten away with it if it had all ended in three months—that’s what they were counting on. They hoped Ukraine would capitulate in the spring of 2022. But now that the invasion has been going on for almost four years, the fiction is exposed, since Russia actually has a regular conscription at certain times of the year.
Now, in essence, we’re talking about a permanent conscription. The real change is that Russia isn’t officially sending conscripts to the front lines—on paper, they serve in the rear, behind the front lines. It’s possible some of them were involved in the attempt to recapture territory in western Russia, in the Kursk region, from August 2024 to early 2025”, expert added.
He said that Pokrovsk, which had a population of around 60,000 before the war, is now in a state of rapid change. “The Russians began deploying troops several weeks ago: initially in small groups, they are now attempting to establish control over certain parts of the city. Ukraine has responded by deploying special forces and other units, and the situation is changing by the hour.Let’s assume the Russians are able to capture Pokrovsk, even though the city is essentially destroyed and what was once a logistics hub has now lost significant value due to its destruction. However, for Moscow, this would be another symbolic achievement: it would become its fifth major population center since May 2023.
However, capturing Pokrovsk would take the Russians approximately 16 months and incur significant losses. Therefore, even if they achieve tactical success, the cost to Russia will be extremely high and is unlikely to ensure Putin’s long-term political survival or significant strategic advancement”, expert said.
War is a marathon, not a sprint. Everything will depend on the actions of various officials. For example, the head of the Central Bank is a major bureaucrat. It’s impressive how she’s managed to manage the economy so far, but back in 2022, she told Putin she couldn’t maintain it indefinitely. She’s still trying to hold on. Will she have the courage to approach, for example, the Minister of Economy and declare that there is no way forward? Will Russian Defense Minister Andrei Belousov, an economist, have the courage to say this? Of course, Dmitry Medvedev would never say that; we know him very well. In particular, his thinking is completely predictable.
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