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The Kremlin has already begun preparations to wind down the so-called "SVO." Plans are being developed to use propaganda to justify ending the war without victory. This was reported by the Russian independent publication Dossier Center, which reviewed internal documents of the Russian Presidential Administration.
According to the document, the Kremlin fears a further deterioration of the situation in the Russian Federation if aggression against Ukraine continues. "We must know when to stop. Going too far is a defeat; continuing the SVO would be a Pyrrhic victory," the document states. The document’s authors consider the most likely scenario to be one in which Russia and the United States, and Ukraine and the United States, conclude separate "peace" agreements in parallel. Under this scenario, Russian troops are expected to seize the entire Donbas but withdraw from the Sumy and Kharkiv regions, Volodymyr Zelenskyy will remain president of Ukraine, and some Western sanctions will remain in place. The Kremlin, according to the presentation, is already preparing a new information campaign to justify the end of the war. The main goal is to present the end of the war as a success for Putin, despite the enormous losses and the lack of stated objectives. "Putin has caved in to the West. We have thwarted the West’s plans to expand and prolong the conflict," reads one of the key points. The "achievements" are planned to include captured territories, a land corridor to Crimea, and control over the coast of the Sea of Azov. The authors of the presentation specifically acknowledge the serious risks for Russia if the war continues. "It’s good that we didn’t reach an economic catastrophe. Putin’s goal is the peaceful development of the country and the people’s quality of life," the document states. The Kremlin is paying particular attention to the reactions of the so-called Z-community. Putin fears that the ultra-patriotic audience might perceive a possible peace as a defeat, so they plan to organize an "emotional retraining" of the Z-bloggers they control and gradually change their rhetoric. The most radical supporters of war are planned to be portrayed as people who want endless conflict and the exhaustion of the country. The document speaks of a "controlled thaw" in Russia. However, there is no mention of lifting censorship or lifting blocking measures. Putin himself has not yet publicly stated his readiness to end the war. However, as the Dossier Center notes, the very fact that such materials are being prepared demonstrates that the Kremlin is increasingly taking the risks of a protracted conflict seriously.
Recall, influential British publication The Economist published an article by a former high-ranking Russian official about the systemic crisis of Putin’s rule. The author remained anonymous and, judging by the caption "A grim view from Moscow," continues to live in Russia. According to him, "Putin has led the country into a dead end, and no one knows what will happen next. The future is no longer being discussed in the context of what Putin will decide, but as something that will unfold independently of him and, perhaps, without his participation." The first sign of a turning point is the elite’s discourse. Officials, governors, and businessmen have stopped referring to the government’s actions as "we." The future is discussed not as "what Putin will decide," but as a process that will unfold without him. In place of the former comfort and non-interference, the state offers only repression, interference, and censorship, the most obvious manifestation of which is the current restrictions on internet access. "Every move worsens the position," the source concludes, comparing the situation to zugzwang in chess. A new war would only worsen the situation. Putin will no longer be able to restore the connection between the Kremlin and his vision of the future—he can only make the rupture "bloodier and more dangerous." There will be no return to the previous normality with Russia, even after the war ends.
