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Mali’s junta and its Russian allies are losing ground in the northern part of the country. Government forces, along with Russia’s Afrika Korps, have already abandoned their third key base, Aguelhok. This was reported by Le Monde, citing informed military sources. The first major defeat for the junta and the Russian Federation was the loss of Kidal on April 26. A couple of days later, on May 1, they were forced to flee the city of Tessalit. Now, Agelhok has also been lost. Now the Russians and regime forces are trying to concentrate forces in the center and south of the country to contain the advance of rebels from the Front for the Liberation of Azawad or FLA and the Group for the Support of Islam and Muslims or JNIM. Agelhok is a small town between Kidal and Tessalit. On the morning of May 5, a convoy of at least 30 vehicles left the camp. "These Russian troops are expected to then head toward Anefis, 200 kilometers to the south. Some of their comrades from Kidal already arrived there last week. It’s unclear whether they will remain there or retreat directly to the two largest cities in northern Mali, which their adversaries have clearly identified as future targets," the publication writes. According to him, the withdrawal of Russian troops from northern Mali is being facilitated by Algeria, which has long been unhappy with the presence of foreign troops on its borders. Currently, there are approximately 2,500 Russian troops in Mali. There are no plans to withdraw them from the country at this time. The junta hopes to retain power with Russian assistance, entrenching itself in the central and southern parts of the country.
recently, Russian mercenaries from the "Africa Corps," supporting the Malian military junta led by Assimi Goita, lost several units of military equipment during a joint offensive by Tuareg rebels and jihadists on Malian military positions. According to the Agency, citing Russian military public accounts, Russian militants lost a helicopter, and the crew and mobile fire team were killed. In addition, a video was published online showing a burned-out BTR-82A and a VP11 armored vehicle belonging to Russian mercenaries. Prior to this, it became known that Tuareg rebels reported the capture of the city of Kidal and announced an agreement allowing Russian mercenaries to leave their camp in the area of the city. A coordinated offensive by al-Qaeda-linked JNIM and Tuareg separatists has captured Kidal and other key towns in Mali, killing the defense minister and forcing Russian Africa Corps troops to withdraw. The loss of Kidal, a symbol of Tuareg nationalism, deals a major blow to Mali’s junta and undermines Moscow’s credibility in the Sahel. The attacks highlight the fragility of Mali’s security model and raise concerns about regional instability. The loss of Kidal undermines the junta’s claim of restored sovereignty after expelling French and UN forces and embracing Russian support. Russia’s Africa Corps, seen as a guarantor of regime survival, now faces diminished credibility after being pushed from the same city it helped recapture in 2023. This setback exposes the limits of Moscow’s military model in Africa, which prioritizes regime protection over sustainable counterinsurgency. The JNIM–FLA alliance revives a 2012 partnership but remains fragile due to divergent goals—Tuareg autonomy versus jihadist rule. In the short term, their cooperation amplifies pressure on the junta by combining local networks with militant discipline. Looking ahead, Mali faces two plausible scenarios: a fragmented state with rebels consolidating control in the north, or renewed infighting between JNIM and FLA that could open space for the junta or other actors to regain ground.
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