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Ukraine is increasingly launching attacks on Russian territory, forcing local authorities to impose restrictions and respond even in regions thousands of kilometers from the front lines. Meanwhile, dictator Vladimir Putin’s attempts to maintain an image of "stability" are facing growing criticism, including from previously loyal ultra-nationalist bloggers. This is stated in a report by the Institute for the Study of War or ISW. Experts note that the Kremlin’s insistence on holding the May 9 parade demonstrates its reluctance to acknowledge that fighting is already affecting Russian territory. Ukrainian strikes are increasingly reaching remote regions.
Thus, on May 5, Russian aviation authorities simultaneously suspended operations at airports in 15 cities and introduced restrictions at all Moscow air hubs. That same day, the head of the Khanty-Mansiysk Okrug declared an air raid alert for the first time since the war began, in the region located more than two thousand kilometers from Ukraine. However, analysts emphasize that there was no confirmation of any attempted air strikes on this territory. As the war drags on, its consequences become increasingly tangible for Russian society: casualties mount, economic pressure intensifies, and restrictions expand—including control over information and communications. Against this backdrop, even some pro-war bloggers who traditionally supported the Kremlin have begun to openly express discontent. A report by the Institute for the Study of War notes that they are increasingly criticizing the leadership for refusing to acknowledge the changed reality. One such author harshly criticized the Russian Ministry of Defense, claiming that the threats against Ukraine were dictated not so much by military logic as by a desire to ensure the safety of the parade, calling it an expression of "ostentatious vanity."
He also suggested that the decision to not display military equipment—for the first time in many years—was due to the risk of it being damaged in open areas before the event.
Other commentators raise the issue of ineffective distribution of air defense systems and propose more active formation of volunteer units to protect regions in the face of increasing attacks. Analysts emphasize that Ukraine is exploiting the weaknesses of Russia’s deep infrastructure, including defense and energy infrastructure. This is forcing the Kremlin to redistribute air defense systems between the front and its hinterland.
However, it has been noted that in recent weeks, authorities have not always been able to provide reliable cover, which has increased tension in the information space. Ultimately, experts say the Kremlin’s refusal to acknowledge the scale of what is happening is leading to the war’s consequences being felt increasingly strongly within Russia itself, and public discontent is gradually growing. The annual Victory Day parade in Moscow served as a show of military might. However, this year, the absence of armored vehicles at Saturday’s parade is inconvenient for Russian dictator Vladimir Putin. According to The Times, either Russia cannot afford it due to the demands of the war in Ukraine, or the threat posed by Ukrainian drones is too great.
"That after four years of grueling battles, a country like Ukraine, with a population now under 40 million and a national GDP smaller than Greece’s, can threaten Russia’s flagship event is evidence of Putin’s failure. His self-imposed war against a weaker neighbor has become a quagmire, a slow-motion disaster that could yet make him the main victim," the publication emphasizes. At the same time, as the article notes, Putin may now be pleased that the war continues, since Russia’s militarized economy is producing weapons at such a rate that NATO countries are left far behind. "There’s still money: Russia’s oil and gas revenues have soared thanks to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. In any case, hundreds of thousands of unemployed war veterans on the streets is a troubling prospect for any dictator. This is where Putin faces his second dilemma: how to maintain his position and how to abandon it in an orderly manner one day," The Times adds. Despite claims of a disinformation campaign by Western intelligence agencies, there is some truth to reports that the Russian president is developing a "bunker mentality."
"He is said to be spending less time in Moscow and his various residences, and more time in secure facilities. This low profile is attributed to heightened fears of an air strike, like the assassination of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, or something close and personal, like a palace coup orchestrated by disgruntled subordinates. This paranoia about conspiracies is manifested in new internet restrictions," the publication explains.
The Russian dictator is already 73 years old.
