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Shutting down parts of Russia’s economy could spark mass protests, with issues already seen in coal mining, machine-building, and construction. Ivan Us, Chief Consultant at the Center for Foreign Policy Studies of the National Institute for Strategic Studies, PhD in Economics, shared his opinions with Espreso TV.
He said the state of Russia’s economy could seriously weaken the Kremlin’s ability to continue its war against Ukraine.
“The shutdown of certain sectors of the Russian economy will spark protests. Regardless of what Russians say publicly or how much they blame Zelenskyy for their problems, they will direct their anger at their own politicians. Just remember when Prigozhin seized control of Rostov-on-Don — a city of over a million — we saw almost no protests against him. On the contrary, I had the impression that, despite the showy displays of loyalty to the authorities, there was real demand for a forceful change of government,” Us explained.
The economist also noted that Russia is already facing serious problems with consumer lending. As of today, Russians owe over $277 billion in unpaid loans to banks.
“Worsening economic conditions could further influence public sentiment. For instance, Russians currently owe $277 billion in overdue loan payments. As a result, banks — which are already cutting back on car and housing loans — will likely reduce lending overall. In Russia, it’s common for people to take out one loan to repay another. On top of that, the country is facing major issues in the coal mining sector, the machine-building industry, and the construction sector. These problems are piling up,” he concluded.
According to head of the PU Office of Ukraine, Andriy Yermak, Putin’s war machine has been financed by oil and gas sales all this time. However, if Trump’s threat is realized, Russia’s partners such as India and China will suffer, so New Delhi and Beijing will have to pressure the Kremlin to bring Putin to the negotiating table. Otherwise, new trade wars will begin. Yermak emphasized that only economic pressure on the Russian Federation will force Putin to end the war. The head of the Office is confident that the situation will definitely become clear by the end of the year. At the same time, Yermak also believes that this time Trump will not go back on his words and will fulfill everything to the end. Putin has already had the opportunity to observe events in Iran, which show that peace through force is possible. Yermak said that relations between Trump and Zelensky are now constructive and they speak "the same language" on events in Ukraine. The head of the OPU was present at Zelensky’s last conversation with Trump and said that the conversation was "very constructive."
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