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If nothing changes in the next few years, Russia will lose a third of its territory. The threat to Russia’s territorial integrity doesn’t come from Ukraine or even from separatism in the Caucasus—it’s clearly enshrined in the ideological tenets of the Chinese leadership, which is seriously intent on reclaiming its "historical lands." We’re talking about approximately one and a half million square kilometers, but China’s appetites will likely not stop there: a vast empire always needs to expand. Russian opposition leader Garry Kasparov said this.
He added that therefore, if we want to discuss Russia’s future, the situation must be assessed objectively. Any attempt to build this future can only be realized if the imperial governance mechanism is finally buried, both ideologically and organizationally.
“Dreamers of a "beautiful Russia of the future" studiously avoid this issue. Unfortunately, these people have influenced more than just the Russian-speaking world. In an attempt to maintain access to Western grants, they have spent years pushing a convenient illusion and poisoning the minds of decision-makers in Washington, Brussels, and other Western capitals. Western politicians still believe that everything in Russia will change on its own. It won’t. You don’t negotiate with a cancerous tumor—you cut it out.
Today, a force capable of defeating this cancer already exists—Ukraine. Helping Ukraine achieve this is the duty of every responsible Russian citizen. Denying this necessity would be a true betrayal of our country’s interests. Our task is to help Russia find its place in the civilized world. But this will not happen until Russia suffers a military defeat. This is not a catastrophe for Russia. It is its only chance”, Garry Kasparov added. Alexander Morozov, political philosopher, lecturer at Charles University in Prague, and director of the Free Russia Institute, explained that Kremlin dictator Vladimir Putin’s political regime is entering a phase of diminishing opportunities in both domestic and foreign policy, and if the war continues unabated, Russia could face a systemic impasse within the next eight to 12 months. In his assessment, the Kremlin’s key problem now lies not only in economic restrictions, but above all in the political "corridor of solutions," which has narrowed significantly. Putin, according to the expert, finds himself at a crossroads: either find a way to end the war, or continue it without a clear explanation of the ultimate goals for society.
"He can no longer continue the war the way he waged it for four years. This is very clear," Morozov notes.
The expert emphasized that one of the main problems was the lack of a clear "end horizon" for the war for the Russian population. While the government could previously explain the goals of the so-called "OSO," now, he said, "no one understands it." Morozov also notes the loss of foreign policy expectations, particularly regarding possible US pressure on Ukraine. He notes that the narrative that "now Trump will put pressure on Kyiv, and everything will turn out differently" was previously actively promoted in the Russian information space, but this factor no longer holds true.
Furthermore, according to the expert, the scenario of a quick military victory in Donbas, which could be presented as the "end" of the war, is not materializing. Fighting for key metropolitan areas continues and has no predictable outcome.
Morozov specifically points to the deteriorating domestic economic situation in Russia. He believes that the period of financial stimulus observed in 2023–2024 is ending, while the fiscal burden on the population is increasing.
"If three years ago there was a balance between ‘carrots’ and ‘losses,’ now it has disappeared," he notes, adding that fears are growing in society about possible savings freezes, tax increases, and new financial levies.
According to Morozov, if the current inertial model of warfare continues, Russia could reach a “final dead end” in both the military-political and systemic dimensions within the next 8–12 months.
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