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The Russian Navy is facing a serious crisis due to Ukrainian attacks in the Black Sea and the loss of a strategic port in Syria, Arjen Warnaar, commander of NATO’s Standing Maritime Group 1, told Business Insider. According to him, the Ukrainian Armed Forces’ strikes and failures in the Middle East have significantly undermined the potential of the Russian fleet – from the Mediterranean to the Arctic. Russian ships had previously been operating at the limit of their capabilities due to problems in shipbuilding, the need for total repairs and limited modernization. Now the situation has become critical: the aging fleet is suffering heavy losses , and the shipbuilding industry is nowhere near making up for the losses. The end of 2024 was particularly painful, when Bashar al-Assad fell from power in Syria . Russia had supported his regime for years, in exchange for access to the naval base in Tartus. The port was a key point for Moscow’s operations in the Mediterranean. But after the change of power in Damascus, the future of Russia’s presence there was in question. Varnaar stressed that the loss of Tartus is forcing Russia to redeploy forces from other regions, straining already worn-out ships, submarines and supply systems. Other NATO officials share a similar view, noting that Russia’s failures in the Black Sea are exacerbating the shortage of combat-ready forces. Moscow also faces pressure to respond to NATO’s increased presence in the Arctic. Climate change has opened up new shipping routes, creating both economic and military opportunities. NATO actively patrols the region, monitoring Russia’s actions and assessing its response.
Earlier, media reported that three NATO countries made a move aimed against Moscow’s “shadow fleet”. Sweden and Denmark, and before that Germany, have begun demanding insurance documents from tankers passing through their waters in the Baltic Sea, Foreign Policy reports . Vessels without official insurance will be blacklisted by the US, UK and EU, which will limit their operations and hit the oil revenues of the aggressor country. According to maritime law professor Christina Sieg from the Southern University of Denmark, the problem lies in the reluctance of ship owners to disclose documents. Shadow tankers often avoid pilots and pose risks of environmental disasters. In addition, there is a suspicion that such vessels could be used by Moscow for underwater sabotage in the Baltic Sea. In May, the EU imposed sanctions on Russian insurer VSK for its role in facilitating shady shipping. Sig estimates that the illegal trade will now be less attractive to cautious shipowners. Previously, such restrictions by European countries were considered legally questionable, but now Sweden, Denmark and Germany have begun to apply them more decisively.
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