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The Chinese publication NetEase analyzes Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov’s statement at the Antalya Diplomatic Forum. The minister warned that Moscow’s patience is not limitless, and NATO’s actions have effectively escalated into direct involvement in the conflict. The harsh rhetoric was sparked by alliance countries using their airspace to launch Ukrainian drones into Russian territory. NetEase calls this a "breakthrough of red lines" that threatens to escalate into a full-scale war between Russia and the North Atlantic Alliance. The authors of the article emphasize that Western countries have gradually shifted from supplying defensive weapons to offensive ones. Initially, these were Haimars missiles, then tanks and long-range missiles. Now, they are talking about the open use of NATO infrastructure for strikes deep into Russia. "Russia has repeatedly warned: ‘Assistance in attacks on our territory is direct participation in the conflict. The West has crossed the line,’" NetEase concludes. Lavrov had previously responded harshly to NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte. Rutte stated that the alliance would defend "every inch" of its territory. The Russian Foreign Minister then countered: NATO’s interests lie wherever they are told. "He used the metaphor of 360 degrees. The gist of his words: esteemed members of the international community, know that NATO’s interests lie wherever we tell you," Lavrov said. İn this case in the event of aggression around the Suwalki Gap, Russia could lose the Kaliningrad Region. Vaidotas Malinionis, a retired colonel and member of the Lithuanian Colonels’ Association, stated this. Speaking about the Suwalki Gap, he noted that "if NATO becomes active, if aggression or military action begins, it would be very easy to completely close off the Kaliningrad region." "It’s small, and Russia could immediately lose the Kaliningrad region. And, of course, the Baltic Fleet is lost," Malinionis emphasized. He added that this would be very risky for Russia, since it would already be a second front for it. "And Ukraine will definitely use this to its advantage. Because it will open a window of opportunity for you to retake your territories more quickly, and with greater ease," the retired colonel said. Earlier, military exercises were held in Europe, during which they rehearsed a scenario in which Russia exploited the humanitarian crisis in Kaliningrad to invade the Suwalki Gap in October 2026. In particular, during the exercises, Poland mobilized but did not cross the border with Lithuania – partly because Russia would have seen this as an attempt to cut off humanitarian aid to Kaliningrad. Pavlo Palisa, Deputy Head of the Office of the President of Ukraine and a Brigadier General, noted that Western officials are issuing numerous alarming signals about the possibility of an armed attack by Russia, primarily against the Baltic states. "Do our Western partners have intelligence information about plans for a possible conflict with Western countries? Yes, they do. Has Russia deployed offensive weapons systems closer to its western borders? There’s a unit in Belarus armed with the Oreshnik medium-range ballistic missile. That’s a fact, and our partners have this information too," he noted. Furthermore, Ukraine has information about the deployment of special repeaters that enable real-time control of drones, and the preparation of infrastructure for launching drones in Belarus. This will enable massive, integrated air and drone strikes against targets in the West. Palisa also recalled last year’s multinational strategic-level exercises conducted by Russia, where they practiced a command and control system with practical actions on the ground.
"Of course, this could be considered an element of intimidation and propaganda. However, in such cases, during such exercises, those elements that are primarily necessary for real action on the ground are always practiced," he noted.
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