The Russian military leadership has convinced President Vladimir Putin that it can fully occupy Donbas by autumn.
According to the Financial Times, citing sources close to Putin and Ukrainian intelligence assessments, if Russia captures Donbas, Putin plans to “raise the price” of any potential ceasefire.
Vadym Skibitsky, deputy head of Ukraine’s Defense Intelligence, warns that a Russian victory in Donbas could lead to further territorial demands, including full control over parts of Zaporizhzhia and Kherson regions still held by Ukraine.
Sources close to Putin say his determination to occupy Donbas has grown, even though he had previously considered freezing the conflict along the current front line.
One source said they had repeatedly advised Putin to stop at the current positions, but he consistently rejected any compromises.
Broader ambitions
According to sources, the Kremlin continues to consider the possibility of establishing control over a significant part of Ukraine, including Dnipro, Kyiv, and Odesa.
One source emphasized that Russia’s initial plan was to capture Kyiv, and this objective reportedly remains relevant.
Speaking of the negotiation process, sources familiar with both sides’ positions note that Ukraine and Russia are skeptical about the prospects of resuming peace talks mediated by the United States, even after the conflict in the Middle East concludes.
On May 12, US President Donald Trump told journalists that he had no agreements with Putin to transfer “all of Donbas” to Russia.
Trump did not rule out visiting Russia later this year and said he is willing to do whatever it takes to help end the war in Ukraine.
However, Financial Times sources report that neither side currently sees any reason to continue the negotiations.
Ceasefire demands
According to the publication, Ukraine concluded after the February round of negotiations that the process had reached a deadlock and is frustrated that Washington has not applied enough pressure on Putin.
Moscow cites the withdrawal of Ukrainian troops from the Donetsk region as one of its main conditions for a ceasefire.
In contrast, Ukraine proposes to stop the fighting along the current front line.
Under this scenario, most of the Ukrainian Donbas, though not the entire region, would remain under Russian control.
Meanwhile, Ukraine does not plan to legally recognize these territories as Russian.
