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Russia needs to additionally deploy at least 50,000 troops to achieve minimal objectives in the Zaporizhzhia direction. Valerii Riabykh, military expert and Defense Express development director, said this on Espreso TV.
"If the enemy had sufficient forces and means, they would develop parallel offensives in several directions. One of the most costly for the enemy could be the Kherson direction, where according to expert assessments, for the enemy to have any success, they need to concentrate a grouping of around 120,000-150,000 and have capabilities for forcing such an important water obstacle that is difficult to overcome, like the Dnipro River," he said.
Riabykh emphasized that the Russian forces chose a less costly direction – Zaporizhzhia.
"Where the terrain allows implementing the tactics that were tested specifically in the Donetsk direction, particularly in the Pokrovsk area. And what the Commander-in-Chief called the ‘thousand cuts’ tactic, that is, when attacks are carried out on a wide front by small infantry groups, resorting to deep infiltration," the expert added.
He believes Russia is counting on the possibility that the forces and means they can concentrate will be sufficient.
"We’re currently talking about several tens of thousands of additional troops. However, in principle, to have certain success and to achieve some minimal objectives, the enemy needs to additionally deploy at least 50,000 troops to this direction. Whether they will succeed in this, or whether active actions by the Defense Forces to cut the enemy’s logistics to supply these troops will prevent them – this is also a question of time and the capabilities of our Defense Forces," Riabykh stated.
The expert added that this direction doesn’t look like a "no-brainer" for the enemy.
"Because the logistics in this direction can be confidently cut by our Defense Forces if there are sufficient long-range high-precision means to keep logistical supply routes under control. Currently, the enemy has one plan, our troops may have a different plan. Therefore, in principle, the real development of events in this direction can be observed from when the enemy begins to implement this plan," he concluded.
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