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Since the beginning of July, Ukrainian drones have carried out a series of successful strikes on strategically important targets across Russia, exposing vulnerabilities in its air defense system
As Ukrainian military and political observer Oleksandr Kovalenko reports in obozrevatel media outlet the strikes have not only penetrated hundreds of kilometers into Russian territory, but they’ve also revealed that the "formidable" Russian air defense network is now overstretched and failing.
According to Kovalenko, on the night of July 1, Ukrainian drones struck the Kupol plant in Izhevsk, a facility known for producing Tor-M2 short-range air defense systems and, more recently, assembling Shahed-136 ‘kamikaze’ drones. Despite Russian media broadcasting footage of a Tor system shooting down a Ukrainian An-196 Lyutyi drone near the plant — and claiming it had defended its “father” — subsequent satellite images and photographs told a different story.
"Judging by the photos from the plant itself, which appeared later, and satellite images of one of the workshops," Kovalenko writes, "it can be said that the system protected it so-so, very mediocrely."
What makes the strike even more remarkable, he notes, is the distance involved. Izhevsk is located more than 1,300 kilometers from the border with Ukraine, and the drones covered this distance and then were able to strike the enterprise, while the Tor-M2 air defense system reacted to the threat at the last moment."
This wasn’t an isolated case. Kovalenko says Ukrainian drones also struck facilities such as PJSC Energia, the Research Institute of Applied Chemistry, the Chervonozavodsky Chemical Plant, the Azov Optical-Mechanical Plant, and JSC VNDIR-Progress — all in the first week of July alone.
Kovalenko believes that years of full-scale war on Ukraine have devastated Russia’s ability to protect its own skies.
"The transformation of Russian airspace into a sieve is a consequence of the fact that a full-scale war has been going on in Ukraine for the fourth year in a row," he writes, adding that Russian forces are losing air defense equipment every month — losses that "they not only cannot manufacture to compensate for, but also cannot even restore in time from the reserves of the Soviet era."
He presents data showing that Russia has lost over 1,190 air defense units, according to Ukraine’s General Staff. This includes verified losses of dozens of Osa, Strela-10, Buk, Tor, Pantsir-S1, and S-300/350/400 systems. Importantly, Kovalenko highlights that these figures likely underrepresent the true scale, because they do not always distinguish between active and passive systems.
And that passive component — radar systems — is key. Without radar, he writes, "all these beautiful, freshly painted anti-aircraft missile systems… are nothing. They are blind, deaf, and mute."
According to him, Russia has lost over 110 verified and more than 200 unverified radar systems. Kovalenko stresses that radars are far more complex to produce, repair, and restore than the missile systems they guide. Their loss has left huge gaps in Russia’s detection capability, especially against small UAVs.
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