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Contrary to the Kremlin’s narrative that the Russian army is relentlessly advancing on the front and will capture Kyiv and Lviv any day now, even Ukraine skeptics like Donald Trump have realized, as the war enters its fourth year, that Ukraine is now more likely to emerge victorious. Israeli historian and publicist Yuval Noah Harari writes about this in the Financial Times .
He recalls that the clear goal of the all-out Russian invasion in February 2022 was the complete subjugation of Ukraine and the elimination of its state sovereignty. However, today, Russia controls less Ukrainian territory than it did in August 2022 and has yet to capture a single strategically important city, such as Kharkiv or Kyiv.
Harari compares Russia’s insane losses with minimal territorial gains to the "successes" of armies in World War I and draws an analogy with the American invasion of Iraq in 2003. "It’s as if, more than three years after the 2003 invasion of Iraq, the US had only managed to capture 20 percent of the country, suffering 1 million casualties. Would anyone consider that an American victory?" the author of the article asks rhetorically.
Harari notes that Russia is unable to achieve a decisive turnaround not only on land. At sea, Ukrainian drones and missiles have driven Russian ships into the most remote accessible bay, and in the air, Russian aircraft are afraid to fly even close to the front line.
For comparison, the Israeli historian cites Israel’s 12-day war against Iran in June of this year, when Israeli air forces established complete control over Iranian skies in about 36 hours without losing a single aircraft.
Another telling point the author of the publication points out: in this war, there was only one instance of a foreign army intervening in the fighting. And that was the DPRK, which assisted Russia. Meanwhile, Ukraine, although receiving material aid from the West, was always forced to fight on its own.
Harari recalls that in the first months of the war, Ukraine fought back almost exclusively with its own weapons, because the West was afraid to provide anything more than helmets. He is convinced that Ukraine would have achieved a complete military victory in 2022 or 2023 if it had received everything it needed immediately—before Russia geared its army and economy for a full-scale war.
The author of the article criticizes the West for cowardice and indecisiveness even in situations where their own borders are at stake, as in the case of Russian drones and aircraft in NATO airspace.
"If Russia attacks Europe tomorrow and the US decides not to intervene in the fighting, Europe’s greatest military asset will be the Ukrainian army. The American military also has much to learn from Ukraine’s combat experience and its advanced weapons industry. This is likely one of the reasons why President Trump has recently become more supportive of Ukraine. He likes to support victors," the historian concludes.
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