Russian Workers Turn on Putin as Moscow’s Biggest Industry Bankrupting—Even Xi Can’t Rescue It

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Europe has structurally exited dependence on Russian gas: ~40–45% in 2021 collapsed to low‑teens by 2024 as pipeline flows fell toward near‑zero and the Ukraine transit route ended on Jan 1, 2025. The gap was filled with Norway, LNG, North Africa and demand cuts, while the EU’s 14th sanctions package moved to curb Russian LNG trans‑shipments. For Gazprom, the “great replacement” was China—but Power of Siberia‑2 remains a memorandum without a disclosed price or timeline, which means no bankable FID. China’s leverage grows as PoS‑1 volumes rise (c. 30 bcm in 2024) but margins stay below what Europe once paid. Meanwhile, Ukraine’s deep‑strike campaign repeatedly knocked out chunks of refinery capacity (peaking around the high‑teens percent), forcing domestic fuel controls and export bans sprinting on‑and‑off, with insurance and freight costs sticking. Financially, Gazprom swung from a huge 2023 loss to a 2024 profit under IFRS—yet still withheld dividends and flagged further strain under local standards. Net: Europe’s door is shut, China dictates price, and wartime disruption plus sanctions make each “cheap” attack expensive for Moscow’s budget.