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Russians are angry and desperate because they are not achieving success on the front lines , and civilians are suffering as a result. This was stated by Dmitry Zhmailo, executive director of the Ukrainian Center for Security and Cooperation and an expert on Russian hybrid influence worldwide, on Radio NV.
"Unfortunately, this anger hasn’t yet reached their commanders, because for the Russian occupiers, the evil, the main criminals, are still sitting in Moscow, not Kyiv," he said.
According to him, at the end of 2024, the average daily advance of the Russians was 45 square kilometers per day, with losses of about 16 people per square kilometer. Now it has slowed to 2-3 kilometers per day, sometimes reaching five kilometers per day, with losses of more than 300 Russian occupiers. "Losses reach 90%, in some places 95%: the remnants are either withdrawn or flee, a new unit arrives, and, accordingly, history repeats itself… Despair over one’s own incompetence. And so, despair transforms into additional cruelty, cruelty towards defenseless, unarmed people," he explained.
Russia lost ground in the war against Ukraine during April 2026 for the first time since summer 2024, according to battlefield analysis conducted by the Institute for the Study of War. This is the latest indication in recent months that the tide may be turning against Moscow as Putin’s faltering invasion approaches a fifth summer.
Ukraine’s recent battlefield gains have not come as a result of any innovative new weapons systems or a sudden surge in Western arms deliveries. Instead, they appear to have been enabled primarily by mounting command and communications problems within the Russian military.
Shortly after the first reports of new Ukrainian offensive operations began to emerge in early 2026, US company SpaceX decided to cut the Russian army’s illicit access to the satellite-based Starlink system. Within weeks, Ukrainian forces had advanced ten to twelve kilometers in two separate thrusts on the southern front of the war, recovering territory lost to Russia months earlier.
Communications failures appear to have contributed significantly to Russia’s problems. According to Ukrainian intelligence sources, Russian commanders on the southern front were forced to rely on inaccurate maps showing exaggerated gains, while clusters of Russian troops were deployed to forward positions without adequate communication tools or coordination, leaving them highly vulnerable to Ukrainian counterattacks.
Recall, analysts said the war in Ukraine forced Putin to hold Russia’s Victory Day parade on a far smaller scale than in previous years because the Kremlin cannot reliably defend areas deep inside Russia, including Moscow, from Ukrainian drones. The parade lasted only 45 minutes, featured no tanks or other military equipment for the first time since 2007, and was attended by only 10 foreign leaders, compared with more than 20 in 2025. The parade also featured North Korean soldiers for the first time. The parade was preceded by a series of successful Ukrainian strikes on areas deep inside Russia that the Kremlin largely failed to defend despite redeploying air defense systems. The shortened format shows that four years of war are taking an increasing toll on Russia, ISW wrote.
At the same time, Putin’s insistence on holding the parade despite the threat of Ukrainian drones reflects his refusal to acknowledge current battlefield realities and his desire to restore Russia’s imagined Soviet “greatness.”
Moscow’s demands for a ceasefire during the celebrations were “a deliberate attempt to project a sense of power and control in Russia, while seeking to avoid the embarrassment of potential Ukrainian strikes” during its “main patriotic holiday,” ISW wrote.
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