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Ukraine has intensified its attacks on Russian oil refineries, and the new attacks are already causing significant economic impact. According to experts, nearly 40% of Russian refinery capacity is currently idle, primarily due to Ukrainian drone attacks, which account for up to 70% of the shutdowns.
Scheduled maintenance at some plants had to be postponed to at least partially maintain production, Washington Post reports .
The consequences are also being felt by ordinary consumers. The fuel shortage in Russia is reaching approximately 20% of monthly gasoline demand—that’s about 400,000 tons of the two million normally consumed. About one in 50 gas stations has already stopped selling gasoline, and national production has fallen by approximately 10%.
Russia, an economic powerhouse and energy resource, accustomed to exporting oil, is now forced to import petroleum products, primarily gasoline. Since July, the country has increased fuel purchases from Belarus by 36% compared to last year, and in September, imports rose by almost 170% compared to the previous month. However, these volumes are still insufficient to meet domestic demand. Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak proposed expanding gasoline imports, including from China, South Korea, and Singapore, and eliminating the corresponding duties. Furthermore, Russian authorities are considering the use of various chemical additives, including ethanol and monomethylaniline, a substance banned ten years ago.
To ease the burden on the domestic market, the government extended the ban on gasoline and diesel exports until the end of the year. Supply disruptions are being felt most acutely in Crimea and several other regions of the country.
As a reminder, regular Ukrainian drone strikes on oil and gas facilities in Russia are depriving it of its main source of funding for the war. Forbes wrote that this could destabilize Russian society as much as it did on the eve of the February Revolution of 1917. The publication notes that Ukraine attempted to target this vulnerable spot of the aggressor as early as late 2023. But then, the Biden administration, fearing rising global oil prices, effectively vetoed Kyiv’s strategy.
In the summer of 2025, Ukraine launched a new campaign of strikes against Russian refineries and pipelines. This time, with Washington no longer objecting to such strikes, the campaign produced significant results: according to various estimates, Russia lost between 17% and 20% of its oil refining capacity. This has caused significant fuel shortages and rising prices on Russia’s domestic market, increasing social pressure on the Kremlin as ordinary Russians increasingly feel the effects of the war.
"Ukrainian drone strikes on oil refineries achieve what sanctions alone couldn’t. Moscow has found ways to adapt to Western sanctions, but it still lacks reliable defense against Ukrainian drones," explained former Ukrainian Defense Ministry adviser Serhiy Kuzan.
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