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The Russian army has launched its spring–summer offensive against Ukraine’s defensive stronghold line in eastern Donetsk region. However, according to the Institute for the Study of War, ISW, the Kremlin is already preparing the public for modest results, slow advances, and heavy casualties. Russia has deployed tens of thousands of troops in extremely grueling infantry assaults. Particularly, analysts say Russian forces are unlikely to capture the so-called “fortress belt” and will only achieve limited tactical gains at a very high cost. Over the course of four days, more than 6,090 soldiers were killed or wounded -an average of around 1,520 casualties per day -Ukraine’s Commander-in-Chief, General Oleksandr Syrskyi, reported. In total, Russian forces lost 8,710 personnel over the past week. Analysts emphasize that such a high casualty rate is unsustainable given Russia’s current pace of recruitment and will likely undermine its ability to sustain large-scale offensives in the medium to long term. According to ISW, Russian forces are unlikely to seize the “fortress belt” in 2026. At best, they may secure minor tactical advances, but only at the cost of significant losses. “Russian officials are already shaping expectations in the information space for slow progress and heavy casualties,” analysts note. “At the same time, a Russian State Duma deputy stated on March 23 that all wars involve losses, but Russian troops will attempt to minimize casualties while advancing ‘gradually’ toward Sloviansk and Kramatorsk. Earlier, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said Ukrainian forces liberated 460 square kilometers of land from Russia since the start of 2026. Zelenskiy noted that Russia was losing 35,000 troops every month, stressing that Vladimir Putin was seeking to conscript 400,000 new soldiers as the Russian army reserves were depleting.
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