#ukrainewar #ukrainewarupdate #military #militarydevelopments #militarystrategy
Ukraine’s General Staff says Russian casualties—killed and wounded—have topped one million, a figure echoed in range by independent analyses but not independently verified. We unpack what that scale means on the map and in Moscow’s accounts. At home, Russia’s federal deficit reached roughly 4.9 trillion rubles in January–July, already exceeding the 2025 target, while the central bank cut rates from 20% in early June to 18% on July 25. Inflation has cooled from spring highs, but households’ expectations were still elevated in May (13.4%) before easing to 13% in June–July. We connect losses, logistics, morale, and the war‑economy trade‑offs, then test three paths—grinding “attrition,” fiscal “erosion,” or a sharper “break.” Finally, we outline what could prove us wrong: energy prices, external resupply, winter, sanctions and financing, and any diplomatic surprise.
Sources:
Associated Press — Ukraine says Russia’s military losses have topped 1 million
https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-war-drone-attacks-kharkiv-0869f159a0b1b0b073dd139a94cffdc1
ISW — Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment (June 12, 2025)
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-june-12-2025
ISW — Ukraine Conflict Updates (günlük harita & notlar)
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/ukraine-conflict-updates
ISW — Interactive map
Reuters — Russia’s seven‑month budget deficit exceeds annual target (Aug 7, 2025)
https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/russias-seven-month-budget-deficit-exceeds-annual-target-2025-08-07/
Bank of Russia — Key rate cut to 20% (June 6, 2025)
https://www.cbr.ru/eng/press/pr/?file=06062025_133000key_e.htm
Bank of Russia — Key rate cut to 18% (July 25, 2025)
https://www.cbr.ru/eng/press/keypr/
Bank of Russia — Inflation Expectations & Consumer Sentiment (May 2025, PDF)
https://www.cbr.ru/collection/collection/file/55918/infl_exp_25-05_e.pdf
Reuters — Russia’s July inflation expectations steady at 13% (July 17, 2025)
https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/russias-july-inflation-expectations-steady-13-supporting-case-rate-cut-2025-07-17/
Trading Economics — Russia Inflation (CPI)
https://tradingeconomics.com/russia/inflation-cpi
CSIS — Russia’s Battlefield Woes in Ukraine
https://www.csis.org/analysis/russias-battlefield-woes-ukraine
The Moscow Times — Russia’s Monthly Inflation Creeps Up for the First Time in 6 Months (June 12, 2025)
https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2025/06/12/russias-monthly-inflation-creeps-up-for-the-first-time-in-6-months-a89430
Russia Matters (Harvard) — Russia in Review, Aug. 1–8, 2025
https://www.russiamatters.org/news/russia-review/russia-review-aug-1-8-2025
Russia Matters — Russia‑Ukraine War Report Card, Aug. 6, 2025
https://www.russiamatters.org/news/russia-ukraine-war-report-card/russia-ukraine-war-report-card-aug-6-2025
PBS NewsHour (AP carry) — Ukraine says Russia’s military losses have topped 1 million
https://www.pbs.org/newshour/world/ukraine-says-russias-military-losses-have-topped-1-million-in-3-years-of-war
