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Russian elites have long been pressuring the Kremlin to end the war in Ukraine, which is draining the country’s economy. However, Vladimir Putin’s inner circle recently developed a new source of discontent.
Dmitry Kornienko, founder of the Resurgram community , explained in a conversation with Channel 24 why the Kremlin leader’s behavior irritates the elite and upsets the balance in the Russian power system. At the same time, a noteworthy shift in Vladimir Putin’s rhetoric toward the Ukrainian government is also noticeable.
Kornienko explained that certain influence groups in Russia are unhappy with Putin’s isolation from the outside world and even from his inner circle.
"Putin embodies the conditional social contract of clans, elites, oligarchic groups, and security forces, which establishes informal rules of conduct within the power system. Although he has virtually unlimited power, he is nevertheless constrained by the need to maintain balance within this contract," he emphasized.
At the same time, according to media reports, he locks himself in a bunker for several weeks, and even his inner circle cannot access him without a three-day security check. This, as the founder of the Resurgram community suggested, indicates that someone may be controlling Putin’s "bubble."
It’s known that the Federal Protective Service has banned both Putin and his entourage from using any devices connected to the internet. This means, in his view, that the agency that provides security for the Kremlin leader already controls who can approach Putin, pass on information, and so on.
"Therefore, there is no central authority that enforces rules for the influential groups within the Russian government. For example, Sergei Kiriyenko , through his son, who runs VKontakte, is trying to block the internet in Russia. And thereby gain a unique right to control the media landscape," Dmitry Korniyenko emphasized .
However, this media field is fragmented – there are bloggers who are loyal to different clans – Secretary of the Security Council Sergei Shoigu , the Ministry of Defense, the FSB.
"Because the fewer resources the Kremlin has, the more redistribution occurs and the balance of power is disrupted. The wealth of the wealthiest people in Putin’s circle is growing despite the economic crisis. After all, assets are being taken away from people less loyal to the regime in their favor. However, the speed of these processes is difficult to analyze due to a lack of information," he asserts.
However, even the change in Putin’s rhetoric—he previously called the Ukrainian leader a "drug addict" and recently referred to him as "Mr. Zelensky"—is evidence that something is happening. And these processes, according to the founder of the Resurgram community, are quite sensitive.
Political strategist Yuri Podorozhny explained that Putin has already lost complete control of power in Russia. The levers of influence are now concentrated in the hands of the FSB and the heads of the military-industrial complex. He suggests that the question now is whether the system needs Putin.
The confrontation between Putin’s administration and the FSB is growing daily, according to intelligence reports. Podorozhny noted that if the Kremlin leader truly controlled power, Russia would not have reached its current situation. Therefore, it is the FSB that will determine "who will become the next president of Russia."
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