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Russia will only be able to seize the Donetsk region if they manage to breach Ukrainian defenses in one direction, stated military expert Pavlo Narozhny, founder of the charity "Reactive Mail." He added that we are currently seeing a decrease in artillery shelling. The occupiers are currently dropping a huge number of guided bombs, but this doesn’t allow them to breach our defenses and quickly advance further.
"All they can do is send in wave after wave of their infantry in the hopes that they’ll reach our fortifications and engage in combat directly in these trenches. That’s their only plan for advancing. But we can clearly see that it’s not working," Narozhny said on Radio NV.
He added that the pace of advancement in Russia has dropped critically over the past three months. In one month, the Defense Forces even liberated more territory than the enemy had occupied. "Right now, I think we’re close to equilibrium. In some places, the enemy is advancing faster, by a microscopic distance. And there’s clearly no other tactic or strategy in sight. Yes, they’re saying, ‘Let’s make a huge number of drones.’ They’re simply launching drones. They need to somehow expose our firing positions. They’re quite well-built. So all they can do is linger in one place for a long time and advance at a snail’s pace," Narozhny added. The New York Times previously reported that the Russian army, following last year’s successes, has effectively stalled at the front this year . The Defense Forces have even begun to regain the initiative in some areas. The journalists calculated that, at the current pace of advance, Moscow would need more than 30 years to capture the entire Donbas. Analysts from the Institute for the Study of War previously stated that Russian troops lost more territory on the front in April than they occupied. According to their data, Russia lost control of 116 square kilometers of Ukrainian territory during April. At the same time, analysts point out that the slowdown in Russia’s progress may be partly due to seasonal weather fluctuations. Thus, the winter of 2025-2026 was colder and significantly wetter than the previous one. As a result, the Russian army slowed its advance in March and April due to the spring thaw. The melting of frozen winter soil and spring rains worsen conditions for mechanized movement, as vehicles simply get stuck on impassable roads.
At the same time, analysts indicate that Russian troops may increase the pace of their advance in May and June with the onset of hot weather. ISW also notes that the Kremlin uses infiltration tactics to exaggerate Russia’s control over territory. "According to ISW, Russian forces captured or penetrated 28.28 square kilometers of territory in April 2026 and a total of 1,716.42 square kilometers from November 2025 to April 2026. However, during the same period, Russian forces captured only 1,443.35 square kilometers," the analysts note.
ISW notes that Russian forces do not control these penetration areas, which are often located near Ukrainian positions in disputed "gray zones."
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