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Political and economic expert Taras Zagorodniy stated that Ukraine has little leverage to pressure China to end the war.
"Ukraine must demonstrate its strength, specifically by launching something into the Power of Siberia gas pipeline. This would be the best possible demonstration of Ukraine’s strength to China. China has no interest in ending the war; it’s happy with the way things are," he emphasized in an interview with Glavred. At the same time, the expert believes that relations between Ukraine and China essentially do not exist at this stage.
At the same time, he is confident that Ukraine must demonstrate its strength by striking sensitive energy facilities in the Russian Federation.
"Ukraine needs to hit Urengoy, the Power of Siberia, and so on, so the Chinese themselves will come and ask us not to do this. Then Ukraine will be able to ask what the consequences will be. We need to show strength, and then the process will move in the direction we want – that’s the only way this world works," Zagorodniy added.
Recall, Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian oil refineries have disrupted fuel supplies and driven up gasoline prices domestically, according to a report by the Institute for the Study of War . Analysts believe the resulting fuel shortage will lead to higher costs for both businesses and households, which could ultimately accelerate inflation in Russia. "Even before the attacks, Russia had been experiencing fuel supply difficulties, leading to periodic export restrictions since 2022. The latest attacks from Ukraine have exacerbated the shortage and led to a sharp rise in gasoline prices in Russia and the occupied territories of Ukraine," the statement reads.
According to analysts, the fuel shortage will increase business and household expenses and accelerate inflation in Russia. "Strikes on targets deep in the rear remain one of the most sensitive issues for Russian society and simultaneously undermine trust in the government’s ability to protect critical infrastructure," ISW noted.
Refineries, factories, ports and railroad lines have already been blown up. Ukraine now has an arsenal capable of hitting much of western Russia, where much of the country’s oil processing industry is concentrated. Kyiv has also announced a new weapon, called the Flamingo, that it says could reach Russia’s industrial heartland in the Ural Mountains.
With long-range strikes, Ukraine aims to batter the country’s oil industry and bring the pain of the war home to Russians. The question is whether the strategy will be enough to sway the Kremlin to negotiate in earnest. The ramping up of the deep-strike campaign is Ukraine’s latest reinvention of its war effort.
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