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A Ukrainian military analyst has outlined a scenario that, in his view, could trigger mass unrest across Russia — beginning in the country’s capital.
Oleg Zhdanov, a former Ukrainian military officer now known for his online briefings, described how disrupting Moscow’s energy supply could ignite large-scale protests and potentially destabilize the government of Vladimir Putin. According to Zhdanov, unrest in Russia “always starts in Moscow,” and any uprising there would rapidly spread to other parts of the country. He argued that strikes on oil refineries and thermal power plants could “plunge Moscow into darkness” and provoke frustration among residents.
“Our goal is to ‘take out’ Russian oil refineries and strike thermal power plants,” Zhdanov said, suggesting that cutting energy to the capital would “create the conditions for a revolt.”
He noted that recent blackouts were already familiarizing Russians with power outages, saying, “We’re starting to accustom Russians to blackouts. They already know what they’re like.” Zhdanov told his viewers that Ukraine’s broader strategy involved disrupting Russia’s “linear energy system.” From a political standpoint, he said, isolating Moscow was essential: “We need to cut off power to Moscow.”
He added that Moscow’s fuel supply was being maintained through shipments from other regions but warned that cutting those routes would eventually leave the capital without energy.
“To drain Moscow of its energy supply, to drain it of its fuel supply — that’s the key,” he explained.
Zhdanov claimed that the Kremlin fears a protest movement beginning in the capital, calling it the most dangerous potential trigger for nationwide unrest. “Putin is very afraid that Moscow won’t protest,” he said. “It usually starts like this: if Moscow protests, practically the entire country will protest. It will spread immediately, and no Roskomnadzor agency will be able to shut down the internet or anything else.”
He concluded that if discontent rises in Moscow, “everyone in the Russian Federation will know about it immediately.”
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