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The Institute for the Study of War released its latest report, noting that Ukrainian forces, for the first time since the summer 2023 counteroffensive, liberated more territory than they suffered losses in February 2026. Analysts stated that they had obtained evidence showing that Ukrainian forces had liberated approximately 257 square kilometers since January 1. Specifically, between February 14 and 20, they achieved a net gain of almost 33 square kilometers, and between February 21 and 27, the territorial gain was approximately 57 square kilometers. "The last time Ukrainian forces achieved a net gain was during the summer counteroffensive of 2023, when they captured 377 square kilometers in June 2023, 257 square kilometers in July 2023, and 1.47 square kilometers in September 2023," ISW recalled. Analysts commented on Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s statement that the Defense Forces have recaptured 460 square kilometers of territory since the beginning of 2026, noting that their mapping methodology "underestimates Ukrainian advances, as ISW depicts the furthest estimated extent of Russian advances until sufficient open-source evidence emerges to allow ISW to confidently assess that Russian forces no longer hold these positions." "The front line in Ukraine has also become porous due to the lack of contiguous lines, which adds further complexity to assessing actual control of the area," the experts explained. At the same time, they say, despite the discrepancy between the data provided by Zelenskyy and that obtained by ISW, Ukraine’s successes in February 2026 are "worthy of attention."
However, according to analysts, Ukrainian counterattacks "are unlikely to escalate into a large-scale counteroffensive; it is very likely that Russian troops will stabilize their positions and begin the offensive again."
At the same time, the ISW acknowledged that Ukraine’s recent successes on the battlefield have thwarted Russia’s efforts to create the conditions for its spring-summer offensive in 2026 and forced Russian troops to establish a stable defense before beginning the fight to retake lost ground.
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