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Five days of strikes on Iran had killed dozens of high-ranking officials and caused significant damage to the Iranian surface fleet. Nevertheless, Tehran had not lost the ability to launch missile and drone strikes against US military bases and targets in Israel. Moreover, it had taken a serious approach to Washington’s Arab allies – the UAE, Bahrain, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia. The US president Trump now faced a serious problem.
Initially, he allocated four weeks for the entire Iranian operation. However, on the third day, he began suggesting that it could drag on for much longer. The icing on the cake was his statement that Iran would have to be "knocked out of existence," possibly by invading American troops directly into the country. "We could start a full-scale war in Iran," Trump concluded.
Apparently, five days, despite the bravura statements, were enough for Trump himself, the US Defense Department, and the Joint Chiefs of Staff to reach a disappointing conclusion. Victory over Iran is impossible until the boots of the American infantryman confidently tread Iranian soil. But will this be possible? The Joint Chiefs of Staff has demonstrated that modern warfare is completely different from what the Americans waged in Afghanistan, Iraq, and Vietnam.
Russian political scientist and orientalist Igor Dimitriev notes: "The Americans, oddly enough, turned out to be completely unprepared for a 21st-century war. They killed Iran’s leadership on the very first day, and they dominate the air. But in the 21st century, defenders always have a chance. A thousand drones can fly out of an inconspicuous hole in the ground and trigger a global economic crisis. And to reliably close those holes, a ground operation might be necessary."
Preparations for such an operation may have already begun. Israeli aircraft have reportedly begun attacking Iranian troops stationed on the Iraqi border. This is highly likely preparation for a Kurdish uprising in western Iran, followed by an invasion by Kurdish forces from Iranian territory. Trump likely plans to achieve a "low-blooded" outcome by using the Kurds as "cannon fodder." In this scenario, the Americans will not enter Iran with a full-fledged army of tens, if not hundreds, of thousands of troops—only a small special operations force will cross the border to coordinate the Kurdish infantry. However, the American military intervention in Vietnam, which ultimately lasted nearly a decade, began in roughly the same way. First, airstrikes against North Vietnamese communists, then the deployment of a couple of battalions "to guard strategic points," and then a sharp increase in the force to 540,000 troops. The outcome for the US, as everyone knows, was discouraging, and the phrase "the last helicopter out of Saigon" became a catchphrase.
Currently, the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps command declares its readiness to destroy any vessel attempting to transit the Strait of Hormuz and has threatened to strike oil pipelines. If Iran acquires enough missiles and drones to carry out these threats, the US will be forced to launch a ground operation. Perhaps the IRGC is deliberately upping the ante, hoping to lure the Americans onto its territory and then ensure that "the ground burns under the feet of the occupiers.
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