BRUSSELS — EU leaders are set to discuss extending the bloc’s timeframe for reapproving sanctions against Russia from six months to a year when they convene in Brussels next month.
The prospect of extending the current six-monthly reapproval requirement emerged last week behind closed doors in preparation for the summit in mid-June, five diplomats and EU officials briefed on the discussions said, granted anonymity to speak freely about a highly political subject.
Stretching the rollover process to once a year would strengthen the political and legal credibility behind the EU’s sanctions regime against Russia in response to Moscow’s decision to invade Ukraine in 2022.
Brussels is eyeing the move now that Viktor Orbán is out of office, as Hungary’s former prime minister had consistently blocked any such extension, and used the process to his own gain.
Several diplomats from Northern European countries raised the prospect of an extension in last week’s meeting, three of the diplomats said. EU capitals will continue discussions this week and next, ahead of the next General Affairs Council on May 26.
Sanctions require unanimous support from the EU bloc, meaning that a single veto would undo the existing 20 packages of measures designed to cripple the Russian war economy and squeeze the Kremlin’s supporters.
Over the past four years, diplomats tasked with negotiating the sanctions have had to stare down that risk every six months, knowing that such an unraveling would have disastrous consequences — both politically and on Ukraine’s eastern front.
The high stakes served as useful leverage for Orbán, who left public office after his 16 years of rule ended in crushing defeat in last month’s Hungarian national election.
Orbán has had multiple run-ins with Brussels and his European peers, often using his veto to stymie political deals and foreign policy. Prior to his election loss in April, he stalled a €90 billion loan to finance the defense of a cash-strapped Ukraine, accusing Kyiv of delaying repairs to a pipeline transporting Russian oil to Hungary and Slovakia. The veto was lifted soon after Péter Magyar became Hungary’s new prime minister.
Beyond lowering diplomats’ blood pressure, extending the sanctions renewal timeline to 12 months would also ease the administrative burden on Brussels to keep the measures alive.
No wasting time
Brussels is taking full advantage of Orbán’s exit, with the bloc’s 21st sanctions package already in the works. But EU officials want to go further.
Two of the diplomats said that a mini sanctions package could come before EU leaders arrive in Brussels, targeting Russia’s shadow fleet. A third diplomat said the package could also take aim at the Russian defense industry.
The European Commission will offer EU capitals the chance to extend the renewal process to 12 months, or keep things as they are. European Council President António Costa will then ask EU leaders in June whether they’re happy to extend the sanctions timeline.
Orbán’s departure doesn’t guarantee success, however. Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico often stood alongside the Hungarian. Czechia’s leader, Andrej Babiš, has also supported Orbán’s actions.
Diplomats are nonetheless hopeful that Fico and Babiš will be more amenable without Orbán around.
