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Ukrainian drones have demonstrated their ability to carry out precise strikes on military targets deep in Russia. After successful attacks on Russian strategic aviation airfields, speculations have emerged about the possibility of a similar strike on the presidential motorcade.
In particular, journalist and military expert Petr Shuklinov analyzed the SBU special operation "Web" in his blog. According to him, Ukrainian special services have proven their ability to conduct large-scale operations behind enemy lines involving dozens of people.
Shuklinov notes that Ukraine has established supplies of the necessary equipment to Russia on an industrial scale. Drones, in his opinion, were purchased directly in the Russian Federation, and explosives and special devices were delivered from Kazakhstan and China.
The expert emphasizes that the Ukrainian special services have proven their ability to destroy Russia’s nuclear triad en masse. Today, these are airfields; tomorrow, they could become ports with nuclear submarines or launch silos.
"Currently, the Ukrainian special services are targeting primarily military facilities and Russian military commanders. However, tomorrow the goal of the war may change," writes Shuklinov.
According to the journalist, it is now quite possible to imagine a group attack and destruction of the presidential motorcade. He emphasizes that it is no longer impossible.
The Telegraph editorial board asked the Grok artificial intelligence about the probability of a successful drone attack on Vladimir Putin’s motorcade. The AI analyzed several key factors. In its opinion, the main obstacles to such an attack are the motorcade’s defense systems. Putin is accompanied by the Pantsir anti-aircraft missile system, which effectively shoots down small drones.
In addition, Russian security services use two Aurus vehicles for camouflage. This makes it difficult to determine which vehicle the target is in. Electronic warfare is also used to suppress drone signals. In addition, trips are planned a month in advance with strict secrecy. Ukrainian drones have demonstrated the ability to strike hundreds of kilometers away. However, as the neural network claims, attacking a moving object requires high precision and resistance to electronic warfare.
Drones used to strike stationary objects are less effective against fast-moving targets. The difficulty lies in targeting a constantly moving target. In addition, information about Putin’s movements is often made public only after the visit is over. Based on the analysis of all factors, artificial intelligence estimated the probability of a successful attack at 5-10%. However, the success of such an operation depends on extremely accurate reconnaissance and advanced drones. Even under such conditions, the result is subject to unpredictable factors, such as human error in the defense system.
The AI emphasizes that this assessment is hypothetical and based on publicly available information. The actual details of the Russian president’s protection remain classified.
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