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Russian sociologist and publicist Igor Eidman stated that if the Russian elite sees that Putin is no longer the guarantor of their well-being and security, the likelihood that they will try to get rid of him will increase sharply.
"The Russian elite must fear for their lives; only then can they overthrow Putin," he emphasized in a column on Glavred. The expert believes that not only the intensity of the Ukrainian Armed Forces’ attacks on Moscow is important, but also the targets of the strikes.
"Those same buildings on Rublyovka are a legitimate military target, since that’s where war criminals live. Not all of them, of course, but many, including generals, FSB officers, heads of military-industrial complexes, and others," he is convinced.
In his opinion, if Ukraine receives long-range missiles from the Americans or Europeans, or develops them itself, and begins to strike decision-making centers in Moscow, the effect will definitely be felt.
"For example, if they bomb Lubyanka, the Russian Ministry of Defense, or the presidential administration, that would be a big deal, and it could influence the mood, especially among the top brass. This could push them to get rid of Putin and quickly end the war, which is already directly affecting their interests and security," he says. At the same time, the analyst notes that Ukrainian strikes on Russian oil refineries and other industrial facilities are having a far greater impact. However, despite the attacks on Moscow, Putin will not stop.
"Only a bullet to the forehead could force Putin to end the war. Yes, he might slow down a bit, but he will fight constantly. Putin is obsessed with the idea of foreign expansion, and he’s interested in more than just Ukraine. As long as Putin rules, he will continue this expansion, and he says so openly. He judges Russian tsars and emperors by how much they managed to expand the borders of the state. He lives by 17th-century notions and believes that the more foreign lands he steals, the greater a Russian ruler he will go down in history as. Only a coup or a military defeat for Russia at the front will stop Putin," Eidman added.
Andriy Novak, head of the Committee of Economists of Ukraine, believes that the effective application of sanctions against buyers of Russian oil, the first signs of which are already visible in India, will deprive Russia of a significant portion of its foreign exchange earnings . This will lead to an increase in the budget deficit, a weakening of the ruble, and could lead to social protests and internal conflicts among Russian elites dependent on energy exports.
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