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Russian political analyst Olga Kurnosova commented on Russian dictator Vladimir Putin’s dismissal of his longtime ally Dmitry Kozak from the Presidential Administration and the possibility of a coup in the Kremlin.
"It’s very simple: Putin has always tried to balance the situation around him, to prevent only people of the same position or representatives of the same clan from being around him. Today, we see the Kovalchuk clan ascending to virtually all key positions. Yuri Kovalchuk’s position is strengthening, and many consider him the Kremlin’s “grey cardinal”, the person closest to Putin," she emphasized in an interview with Glavred .
The expert says that previously, Putin would have tried to balance the situation with another person, and he needed Dmitry Kozak precisely as such a "balancing" factor.
"By the way, there was an old story about Kozak being nearly appointed Prosecutor General, but Putin changed his mind at the last minute. So, for Putin, Kozak remaining in the system for so long was natural. But the fact that he decided to resign, or that Putin might have perceived it as a betrayal due to his resignation, speaks volumes," she explained.
The analyst also clarified that current events show that Putin is changing—for the worse.
"And this is the worst side for everyone: for the surrounding world, because this is a move toward even more serious tightening of the rules, even though it would seem that everyone has already tightened them up long ago. Nevertheless, this means that the number of sane people in Putin’s circle is dwindling, which is dangerous for him as well: as soon as one clan finally wins, Putin himself will no longer be needed, and they will be able to try to replace him with someone from the same clan," Kurnosova added. According to Andriy Novak, head of the Committee of Economists of Ukraine, if sanctions against buyers of Russian oil begin to take full effect—and the first signs are already being observed, for example, in India—Russia will suffer a significant loss in foreign exchange earnings. This will lead to a sharp increase in the state budget deficit and an accelerated devaluation of the ruble. As a result, Russia may face an inability to fulfill social obligations and meet budget expenditures . Such a development, according to the expert, poses a double threat to the regime: on the one hand, social protests from below, and on the other, increased discontent among the elites and oligarchs whose businesses are directly dependent on energy exports.
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