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Amid regional defeats, an economic crisis, and domestic pressure, Iran finds itself on the brink of political change. The Iranian regime is experiencing its most dangerous period since the 1979 Islamic Revolution, but the key condition for its collapse has not yet occurred. This point of view was voiced by Karim Sadjadpour, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment, in an interview with CNN .
According to Sadjadpour, Iran has found itself in a vulnerable position both regionally and globally. He pointed to the decline or weakening of Tehran’s key allies. "His regional and global allies and partners have been overthrown," the expert said, citing Bashar al-Assad in Syria and Nicolás Maduro in Venezuela. In addition, pro-Iranian forces in the region have been significantly weakened as a result of Israeli actions.
Sadjadpour also noted the deteriorating economic situation within the country, stating that Iran’s economy is "increasingly devastated." He specifically pointed to the state of the nuclear program, which he said had been "destroyed" by US President Donald Trump. The expert also recalled the stern warnings from Washington. According to him, Trump made it clear that the US is prepared to intervene if the Iranian authorities continue their mass repression of protesters.
Describing the current state of power in Iran, Sadjadpour called it a "zombie regime," which nevertheless remains dangerous. "It (the regime – ed.) has a dying ideology. Its legitimacy is dying, its economy is dying, its leader is dying, but it still retains this deadly potential ," the analyst emphasized. Despite widespread public discontent, the expert expressed doubt that pressure from below alone could lead to the fall of an authoritarian regime. In his opinion, the decisive factor could be disagreements at the highest level, primarily within the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and the Iranian Armed Forces. While stressing that revolutionary dynamics are difficult to predict, Sadjadpour nonetheless said Iran appears to be "on the threshold of political transformation, simply because both the population and even the regime recognize that the status quo is unsustainable."
What distinguishes the current wave of protests, however, is not only what protesters are demanding, but the regime’s dwindling ability to defuse it. One of the Islamic Republic’s longstanding strategies has been to absorb unrest through a combination of repression and concession: allowing protests to simmer before violently suppressing them, while simultaneously offering material concessions.
Israel and the United States loom large in Iranian protesters’ calculations, though not in the ways many Western observers assume.
President Trump has publicly threatened intervention should Iranian security forces escalate repression and kill protesters. The administration’s abduction of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro and his wife certainly lends credibility to Trump’s threats, but it has also activated deep-seated Iranian anxieties about foreign intervention.
Israeli or American military action while Iranians are taking to the streets would almost certainly benefit the regime by allowing it to frame domestic grievances as foreign-backed destabilization.
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