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Many Russians, especially in Moscow, still do not fully sense that there is a war going on. Nevertheless, Ukraine could create an uncomfortable situation for the Russian population, elites and businesses that could force Kremlin leader Vladimir Putin to negotiate a ceasefire .
The president of the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology, professor of the National University of Kyiv-Mohyla Academy Volodymyr Paniotto, in his column for Ukrainska Pravda , stated that such a step could be an almost complete cessation of flights from Moscow airports. He believes that after this, the Russian leadership will be subjected to greater pressure.
Paniotto noted that assessments of the economic situation indicate that the daily lives of most Russians, especially the poor, have improved in three years. He is confident that under such conditions, Russians have no reason to pressure their leadership to end the war.
"Meanwhile, we can, with very small resources, create a very inconvenient situation for the population, elites and businesses of the Russian Federation by closing air travel from Moscow airports completely or almost completely," the sociologist shared.
Paniotto said that the strategy for destabilizing Moscow’s aviation infrastructure could involve targeted strikes on military facilities in the Moscow region, without affecting civilian airports. He also suggested regularly creating conditions for stops, cancellations, or rescheduling flights in Russia. According to him, this would make air travel in the Russian Federation unpredictable and inconvenient.
The sociologist emphasized that the main advantage of this strategy is that significant resources are only required for the first two weeks. According to him, the situation can then be maintained once a week, and less frequently over time.
The expert explained that the cheapest drones are needed to announce a "carpet" plan at Russian airports. He added that attack UAV simulators would also be suitable.
Paniotto assured that after 3-4 weeks of implementing this strategy in the Russian Federation there will be a sharp drop in demand for air travel. According to him, this will lead to political pressure on the Kremlin from the regions and a potential escalation of demands on the Russian government.
The sociologist believes that Russia will suffer major economic losses because of this plan. However, the main effect is psychological.
Paniotto is confident that the most influential Russian population, living in Moscow, will feel that the war has unpredictable and unpleasant consequences. The events are further fueling the Russian people’s anger at President Vladimir Putin, who is continuing the war in Ukraine.
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