Stuart Dowell says that while the release of 123 political prisoners from Belarus is a welcome development, it does not signal any real change in Alexander Lukashenko’s grip on power. The Belarusian opposition remains weak, and the regime’s foundations are untouched.
Dowell explains that the lifting of U.S. sanctions on Belarusian potash — one of the country’s key exports — is a major economic and political win for Lukashenko. He notes that Europe still maintains tougher sanctions, and that’s where the real pressure on Minsk continues to come from.
According to Dowell, Washington has shifted its strategy: rather than influencing Belarus’s internal politics, the U.S. is now focused on managing its broader relationship with Russia. The normalization of U.S.–Belarus ties should therefore be seen as a geopolitical maneuver, not a step toward supporting democracy in Belarus.
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