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in his 2024 state-of-the-nation address, Vladimir Putin declared that the word “elite” had lost much of its credibility. Russia’s “real elite,” he said, are those who serve their country: “the workers and warriors, reliable, trustworthy people who have proven their loyalty to Russia through their deeds.”
It’s safe to assume that these words sent a chill through Russia’s elite circles, where top officials, business leaders, and military figures have been jockeying to hold on to their positions for nearly four years of wartime.
With Putin laser-focused on winning the war against Ukraine, anyone who impedes that goal is at risk of finding themselves on the chopping block. Long-serving officials have fallen out of favor, while ultra-patriotic hardliners are rising to the top, leaving Putin surrounded by sycophants. But concentrating so much power in one 73-year-old man poses some obvious risks for Russia’s political system.
Putin’s war effort has changed the rules for Russia’s “old elites” and made them fear the prospect of peace. The elite group that Putin needs to worry most about is the politicians, generals, and business leaders in their early 60s, such as Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin or the Federal Security Service Deputy Director Sergei Korolev, who are still subordinated to Putin’s old cronies. This group is wise not to question Putin’s opinions, but has no stakes in the war he has made, and is very aware of its costs and the damage done to Russia’s economy. Corruption is a natural environment for these veterans of many crises, but sanctions punish them and prevent them from having access to assets accumulated in former Western “safe havens”. An armistice might change this and could also open new career opportunities—Russian corporations, for instance, such as Rosneft, may have to purge notorious characters such as Igor Sechin to regain their position in the world markets.
Putin’s war against Ukraine aggravates tensions between various and typically disunited elite groups in Russia. They might find a common interest in promoting, with all possible caution, however, the prospect of ending it. The underachievers in their early 60s, most of whom have family ties to old Soviet nomenklatura, may have a different sense of history than Putin, who is obsessed with reasserting dominance over Ukraine, and can be wary about new “times of troubles.” The younger “aristocracy” may have scant understanding of the war-tiredness in the general populace, but they resent the “heroes” whom Putin promotes as the “new elite.” The only cohort that appears to be committed to Putin’s war is his shrinking circle of aging courtiers, who see the risks of staying the course as lesser than those of ending it. They live—together with the lonely autocrat—in the past and are deaf to the lessons of history, which have unpredictable means of punishing such ignorance.
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