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If Russia’s strategic military operations on Ukrainian territory do not result in Ukraine’s defeat, Russia could implement one of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s five "dark scenarios" in Europe. This was reported by the Polish publication Fakt, citing the latest report by experts at the American Atlantic Council*.
The experts listed and mapped potential targets where, in their opinion, Moscow could apply force or limited military strikes. The list of potential instability hotspots includes the Svalbard archipelago, the Åland Islands, Gotland, eastern Estonia, and the Suwalki Gap.
At the same time, former Polish military intelligence officer Lieutenant Colonel Maciej Korowai explained in an interview with Fakt that a direct conflict with NATO remains an extremely risky and unlikely undertaking for Russia without a full mobilization of the country. “NATO is currently beyond Putin’s Russia’s reach. It will take them between six months and a year and a half to restore their capabilities after the end of the active phase of the war in Ukraine”, "Korovay commented.
After this, Korovay pointed to other regions that could be included on "Putin’s list." In his opinion, a more realistic scenario for Russia after Ukraine could be missile threats and military pressure elsewhere—in the Caucasus and Central Asia, where the cost of escalation for the Kremlin is lower than in a confrontation with NATO.
The accession of Sweden and Finland as NATO’s newest members has fundamentally altered Russia’s security calculations in the Baltic and Nordic region. Should the war in Ukraine evolve into a prolonged frozen conflict, Russia will rearm its military in pursuit of Vladimir Putin’s imperial ambitions. He will seek opportunities to rebuild Russian prestige and recover former or disputed territories, improve Russia’s strategic posture, and test NATO’s resolve in Article 5 scenarios in which he assesses the chance of a robust Alliance response is low, or the chances of success at acceptable cost are high. As one expert notes, “Russia wants to expand its military and political opportunities in the face of the West and considers a direct clash with the West highly probable, if not unavoidable.”
Despite its war in Ukraine, Russia remains a formidable, capable, and determined adversary in possession of the world’s largest and strongest nuclear arsenal. As Western intelligence services have warned, the Russian military is reconstituting its forces in preparation for future contingencies. Senior NATO military and intelligence leaders regularly warn that Russian aggression on NATO territory in the near term is a serious threat.3 This study will assess five key scenarios in which Russia might seek to improve its geostrategic position in the Nordic-Baltic region—the most likely target for future Russian aggression on NATO territory. In order of least to most risk for Russia, these are: military occupation of Svalbard; military occupation of the Åland islands; seizure of NATO territory in eastern Estonia; seizure of Gotland; and military operations to establish a land corridor to Kaliningrad. The intent of the study is to develop specific, realistic, and practical recommendations to deter Russian aggression in the Nordic and Baltic region.
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