It is possible to reach a ceasefire this year, but it requires massive military assistance to Ukraine.
This opinion was expressed in an interview with an Ukrinform correspondent by French army general and defense consultant Nicolas Richoux.
According to him, Putin does not intend to stop until he reaches the administrative borders of all Ukrainian regions, which he included in the Russian Constitution as part of Russia’s territory.
“In fact, the conquest of these regions is his immediate goal, while his long-term goal is possibly the conquest of the whole of Ukraine. Moreover, only the achievement of these goals, in his opinion, is a prerequisite for a ceasefire,” the general believes.
A ceasefire is usually a technical military step to start negotiations, but Russia’s initial demand that Ukraine give up its territories already shows an unwillingness to engage in dialogue.
“This is proof that it does not want to negotiate. It will fight until the front line coincides with the administrative boundaries of the regions. Therefore, I have serious doubts that we will be able to achieve something lasting this year, even if there is a one-time ceasefire,” he emphasized.
According to the general, the future of the war will largely depend on whether the United States will put pressure on Putin.
“We don’t know what they (the US – Ed.) are planning. Europe seems to be gradually putting itself on alert, but it is doing so too slowly and uncoordinated. And at the same time, it is Trump who holds the key to all of this,” he said.
The general believes that sanctions pressure alone is not enough. Only large-scale military support for Ukraine can force Putin to peace.
“The only condition is massive assistance announced with the words: “Since you are unwilling to negotiate, we will provide large-scale assistance to Ukraine with long-range weapons without limiting the American contribution.” This could have an impact on Russia,” explained Rishou.
At the latest talks between Russia and Ukraine, the Russian delegation handed over its draft ceasefire memorandum to Ukraine.
The document consists of three parts, contains 31 paragraphs, and two possible “scenarios” for the cessation of hostilities. The conditions include the transfer of some Ukrainian territories to Russia and a significant reduction in the Ukrainian army.
Ukraine also submitted its own version of the memorandum. Its position remains unchanged: a complete and unconditional ceasefire is a prerequisite for the start of negotiations.
The agreement on the release of 1,000 Ukrainians from Russian captivity was perhaps the only real result of the meeting in Turkey.
