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Since June of this year, Ukrainian forces have mounted an almost continuous series of strikes on Russia’s fuel and energy infrastructure, targeting oil refineries, gas processing plants, and petrochemical facilities. Unlike earlier campaigns, the latest wave has seen not only an increase in frequency, but also greater range and effectiveness
Russians are increasingly feeling the effects of war, as drone strikes leave them without power and water. And attacks on oil refineries have also left them facing fuel shortages. All of these events could ignite protests in Russia.
Political scientist Valentin Gladkikh spoke about whether protests are possible in an aggressor country and what else could accelerate their emergence. Gladkikh noted that there is hope that the escalation of these domestic political, economic, and social problems could push Russians to protest.
He recalled that at the beginning of the full-scale invasion, Russia carried out mobilization. Discontent then arose in some republics of the North Caucasus. Many Russians also "voted with their feet" by fleeing the aggressor country and hiding abroad. During that period, the Russian economy lost a significant number of workers and resources.
And then, when Vladimir Putin took a different path, resorting to the practice of contract service, Russians began to return, sensing that mobilization would not affect them.
“However, we must understand that if mobilization processes resume in Russia, the situation will repeat itself. Putin will have to resort to repressive measures, which could undoubtedly provoke some protests”, the political scientist emphasized.
At the same time, the question remains whether these protests could grow to such a scale as to pose a threat to Putin’s regime. Gladkikh is skeptical of such a development. However, even if these protests are localized and short-lived, it’s still better than none at all.
“I have no doubt they will. However, under a repressive regime, with no political opposition or political instruments to advance the protesters’ interests, it’s very difficult to achieve results through mass demonstrations”, the political scientist emphasized.
Now, in his opinion, there’s no point in harboring the illusion that all Russians will rise up and protest, and that this will prompt Putin to take certain steps. At the same time, even localized protests could trigger chain reactions. Recall, in 2024, Ukraine began a limited strike campaign against oil and gas infrastructure objects inside Russia. That year, 24 attacks were documented targeting 15 enterprises — nearly half of them located within 500 kilometers of Ukraine’s borders. 2025 has seen a dramatic increase. Most of the 2025 targets were located more than 500 kilometers from Ukraine’s border.
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