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In a new report, the Washington-based Institute for the Study of War writes about a growing gap between Iran’s diplomatic bloc and the IRGC’s security apparatus. While Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi publicly talks about an "open strait," IRGC structures are effectively imposing a fire control regime on Hormuz, with passage conditions, radio warnings, and already recorded incidents involving foreign vessels. The Black Sea Strategy Institute writes about this
The attack on Indian ships, despite previously issued permits, only highlights how diplomacy and the military speak in different voices and operate according to different scenarios. The Indian Ministry of External Affairs officially acknowledged the issue, summoning the Iranian ambassador to express "deep concern over the shootings on merchant vessels" and conveying to Tehran the demand for "the resumption of safe passage as soon as possible." In other words, this represents a practical breakdown in the agreements. In such a configuration, the negotiating line is devalued because decisions are not made by those conducting the negotiations. History has seen similar imbalances before. In Iraq, the removal of Saddam Hussein’s central power vertical led to the country’s disintegration into competing power centers and a rapid descent into instability. Many American analysts believe this was a bitter experience for the United States. Now, there are growing signs that Israel’s similar assassination of Ali Khamenei may not be a byproduct, but a goal: to undermine Iran’s governance. Judging by the current dynamics, this process is already gaining momentum. When foreign policy statements don’t align with actions on the water and in the air, it signals an erosion of governance. And if this pattern persists, Hormuz will become not only a conflict zone but also an indicator that Iran is beginning to lose its integrity in decision-making.
In this case, US military is preparing for operations to board Iranian ships.
The Wall Street Journal reports this, citing American officials. Preparations for such operations are being carried out against the backdrop of the Islamic Republic’s reluctance to open the Strait of Hormuz. "The planning comes as the Iranian military continues to tighten its grip on the Strait of Hormuz, attacking several merchant ships on Saturday and declaring the waterway under ‘strict control’ of Iran," the report said. The publication notes that such actions by the Iranian side have caused panic among shipping companies, as just yesterday Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi claimed that the Strait of Hormuz was open to commercial vessels. Commenting on reports coming from Iran on Saturday regarding the strait’s closure, US President Donald Trump stated that Tehran would not be able to blackmail Washington. He added that he expected more clarity by the end of the day. Previously, the US blockaded Iranian ports in the Strait of Hormuz and the Persian Gulf in response to Iran’s restrictions on shipping through the strait after US-Iranian talks in Pakistan failed to produce a breakthrough.
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