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Since the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the number of HIV cases among Russian military personnel has increased by 2,000%. According to a new report from the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, the sharp increase is due both to conditions on the front lines—unprotected sex among soldiers and drug use—and to the policies of the Russian government, which, under the guise of protecting "traditional values," has increased pressure on prevention and education organizations fighting HIV.
According to the foundation, by the end of 2022, the number of cases in the army had increased 13 times compared to the pre-war level, and by the end of 2024 – 20 times. Experts warn: “The demographic and economic consequences of the outbreak will be felt for decades and may be even more devastating than the consequences of the invasion of Ukraine.”
The report also points to the generally poor HIV situation in Russia. Since 2022, the country has consistently ranked among the world’s top five in terms of new infections, behind only South Africa, Mozambique, Nigeria and India. In 2021, Russia accounted for 3.9% of all new HIV cases worldwide — more than Tanzania, Uganda, Zambia or Kenya.
"There are no objective reasons why the HIV rate is decreasing worldwide but continues to grow in Russia. This is due exclusively to political decisions," analysts at the Carnegie Endowment emphasize. As an example, they cite the Kremlin’s actions against organizations involved in HIV prevention.
Thus, on April 3, the Russian Prosecutor General’s Office declared the activities of the Elton John AIDS Foundation, a charitable organization founded by British musician Elton John that deals with treatment, information, and expanding access to medical care in the field of HIV/AIDS, "undesirable." The reason was allegedly the promotion of "non-traditional sexual relations." The organization, founded in 1992 and operating in more than 90 countries, aims to combat HIV stigma, protect LGBTQ+ people, and end the AIDS epidemic. Russian authorities, however, accused the foundation of "promoting Western family models and gender reassignment."
According to the Central Research Institute of Epidemiology of Rospotrebnadzor, by the fall of 2022, HIV was diagnosed in 1% of the Russian population – this is about 1.5 million people. "Russia has achieved rather sad "successes" – up to 1.5 million infected. This is 1% of the population," said the head of the Department of Epidemiology and Prevention of AIDS Vadim Pokrovsky. His forecast is disappointing: by 2030, the number of new infections could reach 660 thousand.
In the age group from 15 to 49 years, the infection rate in Russia is 1.5%. This is higher than in most African countries: for example, in Ethiopia it is 0.9%, in Congo – 0.7%, in Nigeria – 1.3%. Russia is ahead of European countries in this indicator by 3-15 times: in Germany, for example, HIV is detected in 0.1% of the population aged 15-49, in Italy – 0.2%, in Spain – 0.4%, and in Portugal – 0.5%.
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