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The Kremlin is in a panic. Some experts say that the fall of the Iranian regime will accelerate Ukraine’s victory over Russia.
The large-scale US and Israeli military campaign against Iran has created a new reality for Ukraine. On the one hand, Tehran has been effectively sidelined as the Kremlin’s "rear arsenal." On the other, the intensity of the Middle East conflict is depleting critical Western munitions, for which Kyiv will now have to compete with Washington itself. According to Sergei Danilov, Deputy Director of the Center for Middle East Studies, speaking on Radio NV, the likelihood of further Iranian ballistic missile transfers to Moscow is now close to zero. Experts call the current coalition strikes on Iran a full-fledged act of war, forcing Tehran to radically reconsider its priorities. The main reasons for the interruption of supplies: Physical destruction: A significant portion of Iran’s missile arsenal has been destroyed through strikes on depots and production facilities. Domestic need: The regime needs the remaining missiles for self-defense or direct strikes against coalition forces in the "black day" that has already arrived for Tehran. Pragmatic calculation: For Ukraine, the defeat of Iran as an accomplice to Russian aggression is critical, even if it occurs outside the framework of classical international law. While Iran is losing its offensive potential, the US is facing a "magazine depth" problem—a shortage of anti-missile systems. According to the FT, the intensive use of air defenses to protect Israel directly threatens supplies to the Ukrainian Armed Forces and Washington’s plans for a clash with China. The state of the THAAD system is of particular concern: Scale of spending: In 2025, the US spent about 150 THAAD missiles to cover Israeli skies. Total stock: Since 2010, the Pentagon has ordered a total of less than 650 of these missiles. Rate of consumption: One or two days of massive Iranian salvos could wipe out a year’s supply of critical munitions.
Western officials warn that Washington may be forced to limit military aid to Ukraine in order to maintain a minimum air defense reserve for its own bases and other theaters of operations. The US military acknowledges that the old strategy of "firing a $2 million missile at a $100,000 drone" is economically untenable. In the current operation, the US has begun using modified $25,000 Vietnam War-era missiles to destroy Iranian drones.
This technological rollback is a necessary measure to preserve modern interceptors. However, for Ukraine, this means that high-tech air defense systems will become even more scarce, and Kyiv may be forced to adopt similar "budget" solutions in air defense.
Recall, the assassination of Iran’s Supreme Ruler Ali Khamenei in a joint US-Israeli operation provoked a sharp reaction from Tehran’s key partners. Russia, China, and North Korea condemned the actions of Washington and Jerusalem, emphasizing the violation of international law and the sovereignty of the Islamic Republic. Dictator Vladimir Putin called the assassination of the Iranian leader a cynical violation of legal and moral norms. Relations between Moscow and Tehran have entered a phase of strategic partnership in recent years, with Iran supplying drones for military operations in Ukraine. Experts note the precedent of June 2025: after Israel’s previous attack on Iranian targets, Russia limited itself to diplomatic support without providing direct military assistance to its southern neighbor. The Kremlin’s current statement is similarly worded, focusing on the political assessment of the incident.
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