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Protest activity is growing in Iran, spreading across more and more regions of the country. The human rights organization HRANA reports that protests have already spread to 78 cities across 26 provinces. Protesters have taken to the streets in 222 towns and villages. Demonstrations, strikes, and student unrest have become the main forms of protest.
According to experts, the situation in Iran now truly resembles a "perfect storm," where internal social unrest has been compounded by unprecedented external pressure. Unlike the Green Movement of 2009 or the Mahsa Amini protests in 2022, current events have a critical economic basis. When inflation and the rial’s collapse make it impossible to buy bread, the regime’s ideological slogans cease to work.
Igor Semivolos, Executive Director of the Center for Middle Eastern Studies, says that if the protests reach a critical point, some elites, the pragmatists around Pezeshkian or the army leadership, may attempt to remove the radical wing of the IRGC from power in order to save the state itself. At least, signals of a split within the elites are already emerging. These are difficult to verify, but the executive branch’s reaction at the onset of the unrest suggests so. A "Syrian scenario" in which, after a protracted phase of street fighting, the country descends into civil war is also possible. The most dangerous scenario is disintegration and disintegration along ethnic lines. Iran is a multi-ethnic patchwork. Kurdistan, Sistan, and Baluchestan are already centers of resistance. With Tehran in anarchy, they will be the first to declare sovereignty. Ethnic Azerbaijanis in northwestern Iran could also demand autonomy, which would draw Turkey and Azerbaijan into the conflict.
The main slogans are “death to Khamenei,” “death to the dictator,” “Pahlavi must return,” etc. Reza Pahlavi himself stated on Fox News that he is ready to return to Iran and lead the fight against the current authorities as soon as the appropriate conditions are created.
For its part, the Iranian Foreign Ministry accused the United States of interfering in the country’s internal affairs, fomenting unrest, violence, and terrorism. The statement noted that the Iranian people will not allow Washington to undermine Iran’s national sovereignty and independence.
It is noted that the Islamic Republic of Iran, in accordance with the principles enshrined in its Constitution, recognizes peaceful protests and makes every effort to meet the legitimate demands of the people.
At the same time, the department noted that a significant portion of the economic difficulties are related to the “total economic and financial war that the United States is waging against the Iranian people through illegal and unjust sanctions.”
As a reminder, protests in Iran began in late December 2025 due to the devaluation of the local currency, the Iranian rial. Following this, the head of the Iranian Central Bank, Mohammad Farzin, resigned. Abdolnasser Hemmati was appointed in his place.
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